Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CHIKITA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone CHIKITA Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 990130 10:30z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 301021Z JAN 99// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GUAM/300912Z JAN 99// AMPN/REF A IS HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNING FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN (WWIO30 PGFW 310000.// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S2 94.5E8 TO 15.9S5 86.1E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 93.0E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATE AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION. 300600Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A 1002 MB CENTER LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION AND THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) TO THE WEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE EAST. NOGAPS ANALYSIS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM UWISC-CIMSS SHOWS THE AREA TO BE IN WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO THE WEST, HOWEVER, AND MAY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT IF THE AREA FOLLOWS TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA). AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301030Z7 IS 12 FT. SEE REF A FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. 4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 311030Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990131 03:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z4 --- NEAR 16.7S4 88.4E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 88.4E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 17.1S9 86.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.6S4 84.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 18.0S9 82.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 18.4S3 81.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 19.3S3 78.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 87.9E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS GENERATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTHEAST, GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 302330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AUGMENTED BY A PARTIAL 301707Z8 SCATTEROMETER PASS. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SYSTEM ORGANIZES. THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRICAL, WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM 301707Z8 SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IS ESTIMATED AT 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 301021Z JAN 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 301030). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARNED UPON AT 06-HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310751Z7), 311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4), 312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990131 09:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z0 --- NEAR 16.3S0 85.4E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 85.4E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 82.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 17.3S1 79.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 17.6S4 76.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 17.4S2 73.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 17.3S1 68.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 84.6E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON 310530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AUGMENTED BY 35 KNOT SHIP SYNOPTIC REPORTS. POSITION RELOCATION IS DUE TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ORGANIZATION, WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND GOOD SOUTHWARD. THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRICAL, WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, AND LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS INTO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE WEAKNESS. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4), 312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0), 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990131 15:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 003 02AROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 83.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 83.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.6S4 79.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 18.4S3 76.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 18.7S6 73.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 18.7S6 70.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 18.5S4 65.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 82.4E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON 311130Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND STRONG RAINBANDS ARE WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING CENTRALIZED WARM SPOT. INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRICAL, WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN ONTO A MORE WESTERWARD COURSE AS IT MOVES OUT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) DISSIPATES AND FILLS. THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0), 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8), 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990131 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z3 --- NEAR 17.5S3 81.8E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 81.8E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 18.3S2 78.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 19.0S0 75.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 19.3S3 72.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 19.3S3 69.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 81.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT OVERALL INTENSITY REMAINS THE SAME. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING AT THIS TIME. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. FUTURE WARNINGS WILL BE SENT EVERY 12 HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4) AND 012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7).// ========================================================================= WARNING 005 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990201 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 75.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 75.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 73.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 20.0S2 70.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 20.1S3 67.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 20.1S3 65.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 75.3E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHIP REPORTS TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TC 17S HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE AREA. EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY LARGE AND ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD ON THE SOUTHERN HALF. TC 17S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINATE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS TC 17S CONTINUES TO GET SHEARED, IT WILL COME UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TC 17S IS THUS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT WIND RADII IS OMITTED AFTER THE 12 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5) AND 022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990102 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z8 --- NEAR 19.4S4 72.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 72.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 19.5S5 70.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 19.7S7 67.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 20.0S2 65.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 20.6S8 62.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 72.3E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 INFRARED AND VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). TC 17S (CHIKITA) CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DECREASED, BUT THE NOTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AT NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MIXING OF COLD AIR STRATUS, AND SLOWLY INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. SHORT PERIODS OF INCREASED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE INTENSITY AND BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8)AND 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6). ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990202 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z1 --- NEAR 20.1S3 69.6E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 69.6E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 20.6S8 66.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 21.2S5 63.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 21.5S8 60.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 21.4S7 57.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.2S4 68.7E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHIP REPORTS TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TC 17S HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE AREA. SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY LARGE AND ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD ON THE SOUTHERN HALF. PRIMARIILY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH. TC 17S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS TC 17S CONTINUES TO GET SHEARED, IT WILL COME UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TC 17S IS THUS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FORECASTING TC 17S TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WINDFIELD (20-30 KNOTS) SHOULD REMAIN INTACT AS IT APPROACHES THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT WIND RADII IS OMITTED AFTER THE INITIAL POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS OR LESS. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6) AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990203 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 009A RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z9 --- NEAR 19.7S7 63.5E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 63.5E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 19.7S7 58.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 20.1S3 53.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 21.9S2 50.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 62.2E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030830Z4 SATELLITE IMAGERY (KGWC AND FJDG). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING INTENSITY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S (CHIKITA) HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND RELOCATED THREE DEGREES WEST OF THE ORIGINAL 030600Z9 WARNING POSITION. THE SYSTEMS REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE ORIGINAL 030600Z9 WARNING. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH A WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A 35 KNOT WINDFIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXTENT OF THE WINDFIELD WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. TC 17S (CHIKITA)IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7). ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990203 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z2 --- NEAR 18.7S6 59.7E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 59.7E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 19.0S0 55.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 20.5S7 52.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 58.7E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990204 09:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.9S8 55.6E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 55.6E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 19.4S4 52.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 19.9S9 49.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 47.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 54.8E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH DEEP CONVECTION ELONGATING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IN APPROXIMATELY 30 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_chikita_jtwc_advisories.htm
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