Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FREDERIC-EVRINA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone FREDERIC-EVRINA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 990326 01:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 260121Z MAR 99//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S1 111.9E2 TO 12.2S5
117.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 260030Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.3S6 116.9E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWS CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF
LOW-LEVEL CU LINES STREAMING INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION, AN INDICATOR
OF THE FORMATION OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST WEST OF
THE CONVECTION CENTER. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 270130Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990326 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 13.0S4 116.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 116.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 13.9S3 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.7S2 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 15.4S0 111.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 15.9S5 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 15.9S5 103.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S HAS DEVELOPED OFF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AND HAS
TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 260530Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25
KNOTS). DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN RECENT
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 31S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND IS MOVING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE WEST. TC 31S IS CURRENTLY
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z4 IS 9 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 260121Z2 MAR 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 260130). NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8),
262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 270900Z8
(DTG 270751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990326 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 13.8S2 114.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 114.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 14.8S3 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.6S2 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 16.0S7 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.0S7 105.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 15.4S0 100.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 114.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTWEST AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
261130Z3 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) MAY
EXIST BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). TC 31S
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IF FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTWEST DURING THE INITIAL
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE
TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 31S HAS REMAINED AT A RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSOLIDATION
OF CONVECTION NEAR THE PRIMARY LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN A
REGION OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 31S IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE ENTIRE 72 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6),
270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990326 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 14.1S6 113.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 14.1S6 113.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.9S4 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 15.5S1 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 16.3S0 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.8S5 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.6S4 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 112.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS SOUTH OF
JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 261730Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE TC 31S HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR CHARTS INDICATES THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 31S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR
FORECAST POSITIONS AS IT MOVES UNDER THE 200 MB RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6), 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5
(DTG 271351Z9) AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990327 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 14.0S5 112.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 112.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.6S1 109.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.2S8 107.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.9S5 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.5S2 103.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.3S1 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 111.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF
JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 262330Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
SLOWING OF THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
SYSTEMS POSITION AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8
(DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) AND
280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990327 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 13.8S2 111.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 111.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.1S6 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.7S2 108.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 15.2S8 107.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 15.7S3 105.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 17.1S9 101.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 111.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS SOUTH OF
JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 270530Z7 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT A STANDARD RATE. THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND REMAINS IN A LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INCREASED
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FIX POSITION FOR THIS FORECAST, THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG
271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7) AND
280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990327 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 14.3S8 110.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 110.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.1S7 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.0S7 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.9S6 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.6S4 102.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.8S7 97.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 110.2E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF JAVA OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 271130Z4
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY A SHEAR LINE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA,
WHICH IS ADVECTING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK INTO A LOWER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AWAY FROM THE SHEAR LINE. CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS STRONG. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7), 280900Z9 (DTG
280751Z3) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990327 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 14.8S3 109.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 109.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 15.7S3 107.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.4S1 105.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 17.2S0 103.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.8S6 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 19.1S1 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 109.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
SOUTH OF JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 271730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A
WEAKENING IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7), 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3), 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND
282100Z3 (DTG 281951Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990328 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 15.2S8 108.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.2S8 108.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.1S8 106.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.9S6 104.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.4S2 102.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.0S9 100.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 108.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 272330Z7 ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 31S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 15 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER IS SWITCHING TO 12 HOURLY WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND
290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990328 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 106.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 106.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 104.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 102.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.8S6 99.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.3S2 97.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 106.3E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S
(FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
UPON 281130Z5 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 31S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INCREASES ITS DISTANCE FROM THE SHEAR LINE TO
THE SOUTH EAST AND MOVES INTO A LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS RETURNED UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION.
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE FOR A STANDARD RATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990329 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 15.6S2 104.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.6S2 104.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 15.8S4 102.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 16.2S9 100.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 16.6S3 98.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 17.2S0 96.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 104.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 282330Z8 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
DIVERGENCE CHARTS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL
QUADRANTS, WHICH CAN BE A PRECURSOR TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THUS,
TC 31S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER RATE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7
(DTG 291351Z1) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990329 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 16.6S3 101.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 101.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.2S0 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 17.7S5 98.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.2S1 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.6S5 94.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 101.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 291130Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S HAS ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY HAVE DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE. TC 31S IS
FORCAST TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. UW-CIMSS
PRODUCTS SHOW THE SYSTEM TO BE TRACKING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR RECENT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN STABILIZE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0) AND
301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990330 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 17.0S8 99.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 99.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 17.3S1 96.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.0S9 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.8S7 91.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 19.7S7 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 98.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, ABOUT 1000NM WEST OF AUSTRALIA.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (115 KTS) ARE BASED ON 292330Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292222Z9 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEVELOPED AN EYE AT
291930Z4. CURRENT IMAGERY SHOWS TC 31S NOW HAS A 25NM EYE. TC 31S
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS AND ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOW THE SYSTEM TO
BE TRACKING IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS ALLOWED TC 31S TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND STABLIZE BY THE 48HR POSTION. THE WIND RADII
WAS EXPANDED BASED ON SATELLITE ANAYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG
301351Z3) AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990330 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 17.1S9 96.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 96.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 17.1S9 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.8S6 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.8S7 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 20.0S2 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 95.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE WEST AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
301130Z8 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). TC 31S
(FREDERIC) HAS REMAINED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE SYSTEMS TRACK AS TC 31S (FREDERIC) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 31S (FREDERIC) HAS RETAINED A
WELL DEFINED EYE AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR IS THEN FORECAST TO MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION, AND EVEN SLOWLY BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z6 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1) AND
311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990331 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 17.3S1 93.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 93.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.4S2 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.4S3 86.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.3S3 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 93.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ABOUT 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (125 KTS) ARE BASED ON
302330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A (17 NM) EYE AND
HAS SLOWLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 31S
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 31S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE WIND RADII WAS
EXPANDED BASED ON SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0
(DTG 311351Z4) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990331 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 17.6S4 91.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 91.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.9S7 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.7S7 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 21.4S7 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 91.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 311130Z9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS).
TC 31S (FREDERIC) HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY AND RETAINED A WELL-
DEFINED 24 NM EYE. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, BUT IS
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE. FURTHER EROSION OF THE RIDGE
BY THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEMS SELF PROPAGATION AND AN
APPROACHING MID-LATTITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TC 31S
(FREDERIC) TO BEGIN TAKING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THIS PERIOD, TC 31S (FREDERIC) IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG
010151Z8) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990401 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 17.6S4 90.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.6S4 90.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.0S9 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.5S4 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 19.2S2 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 20.0S2 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 89.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC)HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON
312330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 155 AND 130 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 31S NOW HAS A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO ELONGATE DUE TO AN INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. SINCE THE ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS DEEPENED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, THE FORECAST TRACK IS NOW SLIGHTLY MORE
EQUATORWARD. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED AND TC 31S SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990401 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 17.9S7 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.5S4 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 19.1S1 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 19.7S7 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 19.6S6 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 011130Z6 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
TC 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT RIDGE STEERING THE SYSTEM
AND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND CAUSED THE EYE FEATURE TO FILL. THIS
VERTICAL SHEAR, COUPLED WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATUS
FROM THE SOUTH, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TC 31S
(FREDERIC/EVRINA) WHILE LOWERING THE LEVEL AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS
STEERED. TC 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEST, POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED
BY THE PROMINANT LOWER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 31S
(FREDERIC/EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9) AND 021500Z8
(DTG 021351Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990402 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 18.6S5 87.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.6S5 87.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 18.9S8 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 19.2S2 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 19.4S4 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 19.6S6 83.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 86.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 012330Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 31S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
UNDERGO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HENCE, THE INTEGRATION OF
VISUAL IMAGERY IN THE NEXT WARNING MAY LEAD TO A RELOCATION OF THE
FORECAST TO THE EAST IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEING SHEARED
AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS INTO A RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2) AND 030300Z6
(DTG 030151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990402 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 18.2S1 85.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 85.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 18.6S5 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 18.8S7 82.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 18.9S8 80.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 19.0S0 79.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 85.2E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 021130Z7 ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPERLEVELS IS
INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS
WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOSING ITS
CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
020225Z1 SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDIATES A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION BEING ADVECTED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH, AND WEAKEN IN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990403 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 18.6S5 82.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 82.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 18.7S6 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 18.8S7 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 19.1S1 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.6S6 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 82.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
022330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9
(DTG 031351Z3) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990403 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 17.9S7 80.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 80.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 17.9S7 78.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 18.1S0 76.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 18.5S4 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.1S1 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 79.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031130Z8 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENISTY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 AND T4.0 (55 KNOTS AND
65 KNOTS, RESPECTFULLY). TC 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH
ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO APPEAR
GOOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4)./
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990404 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 18.2S1 78.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 78.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 18.3S2 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 18.4S3 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.6S5 71.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.4S4 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 77.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
032330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
(55 KNOTS) IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). ANIMATED IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PAST TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 31S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW-
LEVEL COOLER AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG
041351Z4) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990404 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 18.8S7 74.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 74.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.5S5 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.5S7 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 21.5S8 67.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 22.6S0 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 73.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 041130Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MAINTAINING A
SIGNIFICANT, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AFTER THE 24
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TC 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS MAINTAINED
FLUCTUATING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DECREASE AND DISPLACE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TC 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 051500Z1
(DTG 051351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990405 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 19.1S1 72.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 72.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.7S7 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 20.7S9 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 21.9S2 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.6S0 64.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 72.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 042330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY (55 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HENCE THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE LAST WARNING. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS TC 31S MOVES SOUTHWEST
IT WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY THE 36 HOUR
POSITION. THE WEAKNESS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE LLCC SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AS IT MOVES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT BEGINS EXPERIENCING INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9
(DTG 060151Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990405 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 19.0S0 69.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 69.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.1S1 67.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.7S7 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 20.6S8 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 22.0S4 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 69.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 31S HAS RAPIDLY SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) AND FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE INITIAL 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER WATER,
FINALLY DISSIPATING BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990406 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.5S4 68.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.5S4 68.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.4S3 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.7S6 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.1S1 63.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 67.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
052330Z3 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, BUT
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS SHEARED AWAY FROM TC 31S,
NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. HENCE, TC 31S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS
IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2
DTG 061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
32S (GWENDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990406 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 18.8S7 66.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 66.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.0S0 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.6S6 63.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 65.8E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 061130Z3 ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, BUT TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TC 31S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
VERY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG
070151Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990407 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 19.2S2 64.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 64.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.8S8 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.4S6 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 062330Z4 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AS TC
31S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S
(GWENDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_frederic-evrina_jtwc_advisories.htm
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