Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ABAIMBA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ABAIMBA Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20030929 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290921ZSEP2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 4.5S9 64.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KT
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.5S9 64.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 4.7S1 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 4.9S3 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 5.1S6 64.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 5.3S8 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 4.5S9 64.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
505 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS BEEN NEAR
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291806Z6 AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE WHILE THE QUIKSCAT PASS
REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST EAST OF
THE CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO LACK OF STEERING
FLOW. TC 01S IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE
DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AREAS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 01S.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z4 IS 08 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
290921Z3 SEP 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 290930). NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030930 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 4.6S0 65.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.6S0 65.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 5.0S5 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 5.2S7 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 5.3S8 64.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 5.4S9 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 4.7S1 65.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 300606Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TC 01S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6
AND 010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030930 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 4.6S0 65.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.6S0 65.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 4.9S3 66.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 5.2S7 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 5.5S0 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 6.0S6 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.7S1 66.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED AND A 301510Z0 SSMI SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031001 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 4.4S8 65.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.4S8 65.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 4.7S1 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 5.0S5 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 5.4S9 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 6.1S7 62.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 4.5S9 65.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
420 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NO LONGER
EXPOSED. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST UNDER WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TC 01S WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY INCREASE IN TRACK
SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A MODERATE RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4
AND 020900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031001 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 5.1S6 66.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.1S6 66.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 5.8S3 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 6.4S0 64.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 6.8S4 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 7.3S0 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 5.3S8 65.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
395 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND LATEST
CIMSS U/L CHART REVEALS WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
CONTINUED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF TC 01S. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE WEAK STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES
TO STRENGHTHEN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
COOLER AIR COUNTERACTS WITH THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031002 15:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 5.7S2 67.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.7S2 67.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 6.0S6 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 6.8S4 69.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 7.3S0 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 7.5S2 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 5.8S3 68.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01S REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
HOWEVER, DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 01S REMAINS WEAK AND CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. WHILE
THE FOUR AVAILABLE MODELS OF EGGR, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS VARY
IN INTENSITY SOLUTION, THEY ALL AGREE THAT TC 01S WILL TRANSITION
SOON TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEGIN
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEW
STEERING RIDGE. TC 01C WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THEN SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED FORECASTED TRACK
AND INTENSITIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031002 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 5.7S2 67.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.7S2 67.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 6.1S7 68.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 6.8S4 68.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 7.4S1 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 7.7S4 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 5.8S3 67.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND
RECENT AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01S CONTINUES
TO REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TC 01S ARE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
DISORGANIZATION OF TC 01S. TC 01S CONTINUES TO TRACK VERY
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT WELL.
THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS, AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THROUGH
48 HOURS. TC 01C WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THEN SLOWLY
INTENSIFY, AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031003 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 6.2S8 67.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S8 67.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 6.4S0 66.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 6.5S1 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 6.5S1 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 6.7S3 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 6.3S9 66.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01S IS BEGINNING TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED
TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS NEW STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS
OF GFDN, NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. WITH EGRR BEING A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER.
EGRR BARELY INITIALIZES ON THE SYSTEM AND PROJECTS AN
UNREALISTIC TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON EGRR. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES TOWARDS AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DECREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031003 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 6.8S4 66.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S4 66.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 6.9S5 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 7.0S7 64.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 7.1S8 62.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 7.3S0 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 6.8S4 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 031715Z7 SSMI AND 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT
TC 01S CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. TC 01S IS
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS NEW STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAIL-
ABLE NUMERICAL MODELS OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR IS NOW INITIALIZING BETTER
ON THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031004 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 7.4S1 65.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 65.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 7.6S3 64.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 7.6S3 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 7.5S2 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 7.4S1 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 7.4S1 65.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
430 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR REVEALS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01S HAS TRANSITIONED TO
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031004 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 6.6S2 64.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6S2 64.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 6.5S1 63.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 6.6S2 64.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
460 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEAL THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
THE REMNANTS OF TC 01S ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 16 FEET. CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_abaimba_jtwc_advisories.htm
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