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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DARIUS : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DARIUS Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20031229 00:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282351Z DEC 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S6 65.2E3 TO 11.6S8 60.2E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 282330Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S1 64.5E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 66.3E5
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 64.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 300000Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282351Z DEC 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 10.2S3 64.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 64.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 11.0S2 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 12.1S4 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 13.2S6 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 14.2S7 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.4S5 063.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
290530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30
KNOTS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 06S IS TRACKING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
INCREASE INTENSITY. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, AND THE UKMET (EGRR) MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290600Z7 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 282351Z DEC 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031229 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 11.3S5 63.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 63.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 12.3S6 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 13.2S6 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 13.9S3 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 14.6S1 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 62.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
291730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 06S
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A LOW
TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND THE UKMET (EGRR)
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031230 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 12.8S1 61.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 61.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 14.0S5 60.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 14.9S4 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.6S2 58.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.0S7 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 61.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 300530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
VENTILATE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR,
AND THE UKMET (EGRR) MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300600Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 AND 310900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031230 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 14.4S9 59.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 59.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.8S4 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 17.6S4 57.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.6S5 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 59.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
301730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC
06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DECENT OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO EXIST IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND THE UKMET (EGRR)
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 AND 312100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200331 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- NEAR 15.4S0 59.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 59.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.0S9 58.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.1S1 58.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 20.4S6 59.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 59.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 310530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND THE UKMET (EGRR) MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 AND 010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031231 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 16.0S7 59.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 59.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.9S6 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 17.9S7 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.5S5 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 21.1S4 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
36 HOURS WITH INTENSIFICATION PEAKING BY 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND THE
UKMET (EGRR) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311800Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040101 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 16.9S6 58.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 58.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.1S0 58.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.7S7 58.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 21.4S7 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 23.0S5 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 058.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS AND
WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 18.1S0 58.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 58.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 58.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 21.2S5 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 22.9S3 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 25.2S9 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 58.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
140 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A LESS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011800Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 18.7S6 58.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 58.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 20.4S6 58.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 22.4S8 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 24.6S2 58.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 27.4S3 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 058.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
125 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND ENTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND
030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 20.3S5 58.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 58.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 22.0S4 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 24.6S2 58.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 28.0S0 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 32.0S5 62.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 58.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT LINKS UP WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06S WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48 HOURS AND
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 22.0S4 58.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 58.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 24.6S2 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 28.0S0 60.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 31.7S1 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 36.7S6 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.7S1 58.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC
06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT LINKS UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. TC 06S WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY 48 HOURS AND ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS AND
WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 24.7S3 58.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 58.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 28.0S0 59.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 31.7S1 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 37.0S0 63.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 59.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT LINKS UP WITH
THE TRANSITORY TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06S WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 27.9S8 59.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S8 59.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 33.1S7 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 40.6S0 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 29.2S3 60.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30, 35, AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
TC 06S WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 24
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040104 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 29.9S0 61.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S0 61.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 36.2S1 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 51 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 44.9S7 71.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 31.5S9 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS
TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 13 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_darius_jtwc_advisories.htm
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