Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ELITA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ELITA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040126 13:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261251Z JAN 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8S5 42.8E4 TO 21.5S8 44.6E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 261200Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S2 43.4E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTMATED TO BE 1002 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040126 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261251Z JAN 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 18.4S3 43.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 43.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 18.5S4 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 18.5S4 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 18.8S7 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.2S2 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 43.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY
215 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANAVARO, MADAGASCAR AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 261818Z6 SSM/I PASS
REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO; NOGAPS DOES NOT INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM VERY WELL.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
261251Z JAN 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 261300)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040127 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 18.9S8 43.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 43.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.1S1 43.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.6S6 44.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 20.3S5 44.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 21.3S6 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 43.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 270429Z4 SSM/I
PASS REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 09S WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MORONDAVA, MADAGASCAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP AVIATION AND UKMET
EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE NOGAPS
DOES NOT INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2
AND 280900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 17.0S8 43.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 43.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 16.6S3 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.3S0 44.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.1S8 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 16.1S8 45.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 43.6E3.
RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) 09S (ELITA) IS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.
BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WE RELOCATED THE POSITION ABOUT
120 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. TC 09S (ELITA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 271126Z9 SSM/I
PASS REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, TC 09S
WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD IN AND
TAKE OVER THE STEERING PATTERN. THE RELOCATION HAS SHIFTED THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 09S WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH LAND CAUSING A LOSS IN INTENSIFICATION. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN,
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NCEP
AVIATION IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WHILE THE OTHER THREE MODELS KEEP
THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH
MORE EMPHASIS ON NCEP AVIATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND
281500Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 004 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040128 15:00Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.5S1 45.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 45.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 46.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.9S7 47.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 19.4S4 48.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 45.9E8.
TC 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TC 09S IS
NOW MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR. TC 09S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD AND REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, WBAI, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 006 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040131 21:00z REGENERATED
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 20.6S8 44.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 44.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 20.0S2 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.6S6 42.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.2S2 42.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.8S7 42.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 44.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR , HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 09S
IS JUST INLAND OF THE WESTERN MADAGASCAR SHORELINE AND IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
DIRECTIONS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND THEN
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A DIFFERENT STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
OR HIGHER AS THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT GOOD OUTFLOW FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0
AND 012100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) AND 11S (LINDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32/WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 19.2S2 43.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 43.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.0S0 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 18.7S6 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.0S0 43.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.5S5 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 43.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC
09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET
EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND
020900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 18.9S8 42.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 42.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.1S1 42.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.5S5 42.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.0S2 43.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.6S8 44.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 42.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE VENTILATION IN
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM MID-WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING TC 09S
TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AFTER 24 TO 36
HOURS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 19.3S3 42.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 42.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.9S9 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.4S6 43.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 21.0S3 44.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 21.9S2 45.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
VENTILATION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS
AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AS A MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM, TC 09S WILL TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND
UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 24
HOURS, INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE STORM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040202 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 19.4S4 43.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 43.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.8S8 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.5S7 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 21.5S8 45.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 22.5S9 46.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 43.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MODERATE EQUATORWARD
VENTILATION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 12 HOURS
AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM,
TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR,
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 24 HOURS,
INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE STORM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 20.8S0 45.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 45.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 21.3S6 45.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 22.5S9 47.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 23.5S0 48.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 24.8S4 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 45.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145
NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REINTENSIFY ON
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY TAU 36. TC 09S IS STEERING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
REINTENSIFICATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AFTER TAU 24 WITH EGRR KEEPING THE SYSTEM
QUASISTATIONARY WHILE NCEP GFS LINKS THE SYSTEM WITH A PASSING
TROUGH AND INITIATES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 21.7S0 47.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 47.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 22.7S1 48.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 24.0S6 49.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 25.3S0 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 26.6S4 51.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 047.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 KNOTS. TC 09S IS STEERING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSITY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
=========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_elita_jtwc_advisories.htm
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