WTPS21 PGTW 20040301 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 010251Z MAR 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S3 134.8E6 TO 13.9S3 140.2E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MET-SAT IMAGERY AT
292330Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
138.2E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.1S6 137.9E0 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S5 138.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION INCREASING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 020300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 001 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040301 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (EVAN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 14.0S5 135.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 135.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 14.1S6 133.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.2S7 130.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.4S9 128.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.7S2 125.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.8S4 120.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 135.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS MADE LANDFALL. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS MODERATELY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALTHOUGH TC 15P IS OVER LAND.
TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND MODERATELY INCREASE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
BACK OVER WATER AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5, 020900Z1,
021500Z8 AND 022100Z5.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040302 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (EVAN) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- NEAR 14.1S6 134.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 134.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 14.2S7 132.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 14.4S9 130.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 14.6S1 127.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 15.0S6 124.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 16.2S9 119.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 134.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
012330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 15P HAS DIMINSHED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER LAND. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.
TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 15P MAY MODERATELY INCREASE INTENSITY AS IT
TRACKS BACK OVER WATER AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET
EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT TC 15P MAY DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1, 021500Z8, 022100Z5 AND 030300Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040302 09:00z COR
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (EVAN) WARNING NR 004B
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.3S8 134.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 134.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.5S0 133.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 134.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RE-
GENERATION IF THE LLCC EMERGES OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, GFDN AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TC 15P REMAINING
OVERLAND FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC AIDS
HAVE NOT INITIALIZED OR VERIFIED WELL ON THE CURRENT SPEED OR
INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT BASIN IDENTIFIER.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_evan_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]