Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FAY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS22 PGTW 20040315 20:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 152022ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW/
152000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S4 130.7E1 TO 11.8S0
126.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 151730Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 130.3E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
131.2E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 130.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE SURFACE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE REGION WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 162030Z2.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 85.6E9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040316 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152022Z MAR 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 11.9S1 129.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 129.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 12.4S7 127.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 12.8S1 126.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.8S1 125.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 128.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NORTHEAST OF SUSTAINED
DEEP CONVECTION. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 12 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 152022Z
MAR 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS24 PGTW 152030 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND 170900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040317 03:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED AND RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 12.0S3 127.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 127.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 12.4S7 126.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 12.5S8 125.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.3S6 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.1S4 122.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 127.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS EXPOSED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THIS WARNING IS AMENDED TO CORRECT
FOR TRACK INITIALIZATION. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS
AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040317 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 12.1S4 127.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 127.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.4S7 126.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.5S8 125.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.5S8 124.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.5S8 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 126.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 170530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS
AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 AND 180900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040317 21:00z RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 12.4S7 126.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 126.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 125.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.6S9 125.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.6S9 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.6S9 123.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 126.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 171730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TC 18S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTIBUTE TO
SLOW WESTWARD PROPGATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
BEYOND TAU 24 IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND EGRR
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040318 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 13.2S6 126.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 126.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.5S9 125.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.8S2 125.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.0S5 124.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.4S9 123.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 126.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS BEEN MOSTLY
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 172330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
AND 65 KNOTS AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. RECENT ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA SHOWS A DEFINITE CIRCULATION JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CAPE TALBOT. AN 180700Z6 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT
TROUGHTON ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 27 KNOTS AND A MEAN
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 994.1 MB. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
BUT AT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN A CLIMOTOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO INFLOW OF
HOT, DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL THE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040318 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 126.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 126.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.5S9 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.0S5 124.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.6S1 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 15.2S8 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 125.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT
WILL BE HINDERED SLIGHTLY BY EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS,
TCLAPS AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AIDS WITH AN INCREASED
EMPHASIS ON TLAPS AND TCLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040319 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 13.0S4 125.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 125.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 13.5S9 124.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 14.3S8 124.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 15.0S6 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 15.5S1 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 124.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
570 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 191730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL THE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040320 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 124.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 124.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 13.6S0 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 14.1S6 122.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 14.9S4 121.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 15.5S1 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 124.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 200530Z0 ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND
EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND
210900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040320 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 13.6S0 123.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 123.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 14.2S7 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 14.7S2 121.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 15.1S7 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 15.5S1 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 123.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36
HOURS AND PEAK BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAIL-
ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS,
AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040321 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 13.7S1 122.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 122.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 13.9S3 121.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 14.1S6 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 14.5S0 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 15.1S7 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 122.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS,
AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040321 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 14.1S6 121.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 121.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 14.7S2 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 15.2S8 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 16.0S7 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 16.5S2 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
410 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE TRACK
POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR AND GFS ARE LOOKING FOR A
SHARPER POLEWARD TURN AND RECURVATURE INTO NORTH WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040322 09:00z COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 013B CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 14.0S5 120.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 120.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 14.3S8 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 14.7S2 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 15.5S1 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 16.4S1 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 18.5S4 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 120.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE TRACK
POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND
230900Z4. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED MANOP FROM 221500 TO
220900.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040322 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 14.1S6 120.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 120.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 14.6S1 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 15.6S2 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 16.5S2 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 17.9S7 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 119.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115
KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND SHIFT THE TRACK MORE POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A
LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE PEAKING IN INTENSITY IN 48 HRS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, WBAI, AVN AND EGRR
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR, AFWA AND TCLAPS
ARE WESTERN OUTLIERS KEEPING TC 18S IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO
LESS INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE. THE AVN MODEL IS AN
EASTERN OUTLIER PREDICTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE SCENARIO THAN THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE OUTLIERS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040323 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 120.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 120.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 14.8S3 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 15.7S3 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.5S2 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.3S1 119.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.1S1 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 120.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 230530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITH
DECREASED BANDING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN
A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE WEAKNESS HAS BEEN
CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 18S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THAT TROUGH FILLS. ADDITIONALY, THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AND TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, WBAI,
AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND 240900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040323 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 121.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 121.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 15.8S4 121.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.9S6 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 18.2S1 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.3S3 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 21.2S5 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO
A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. A 231230Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS
DRY AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE GREAT SANDY DESERT ENTRAINING INTO THE
SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA FILLS AND
THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES. TC 18S
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING TC 18S
TO REINTENSIFY BRIEFLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, WBAI, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040324 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 15.8S4 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.9S6 121.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 18.0S9 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.0S0 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.9S9 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8 121.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM MAINTAIN INTENSITY TO
COUNTERBALANCE THE CONTINENTAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING TC 18S TO
REINTENSIFY BRIEFLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, WBAI, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040324 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 16.6S3 121.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 121.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.5S3 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 18.3S2 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.1S1 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 20.2S4 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 121.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
241430Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
SYSTEM INTENSITY BY COUNTERACTING THE DEGRADING CONTINENTAL DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THIS BALANCE OF OPPOSING FORCES WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY FOR 36 HOURS, THEN LANDFALL WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE
INTENSITY. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
TCLAPS, WBAI, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 AND 252100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040325 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 17.4S2 121.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 121.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 18.2S1 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.1S1 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 20.2S4 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 21.2S5 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 121.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND REDUCED OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 18S
INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z0 AND 260900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 020
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 18.0S9 120.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 120.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.2S2 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 20.5S7 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 21.5S8 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 120.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST
AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 251730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 251800Z6
BROOME AUSTRALIA RADAR OBSEVATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90
KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 18S INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS,
AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040326 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 18.5S4 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 18.9S8 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 19.4S4 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 20.0S2 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 20.5S7 119.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 119.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
130 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND 260600Z4 BROOME RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115
KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK 10 NM
DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 18S
INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND
270900Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040326 21:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 120.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 120.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 20.2S4 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 21.1S4 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 22.2S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 120.0E3.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL MUCH
SOONER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S
IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 261720Z8 BROOME RADAR IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK DUE SOUTH BY A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. A 261756Z7 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15 NM
DIAMETER EYE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF THE
COMMUNITY OF PARDOO AT APPROXIMATELY 270200Z1 AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040327 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 20.4S6 120.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 120.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 21.2S5 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 21.9S2 121.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 120.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) MADE LANDFALL 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS
AGO. TC 18S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
270530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 270610Z6 BROOME
RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AROUND A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TC 18S
CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 272100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040327 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 21.5S8 121.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 121.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 22.5S9 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 121.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) MADE LANDFALL 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AT APPROXIMATELY 270000Z9.
TC 18S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 9
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
271730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 271800Z8
PORT HEDLAND RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 18S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, EGRR
AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS NOT APPLICABLE
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_fay_jtwc_advisories.htm
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