Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FRANK : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone FRANK Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040127 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 270121ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S6 63.8E7 TO 15.4S0 64.3E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 262330Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S3 64.1E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1
64.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 64.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SPIRAL BANDING BECOMING EVIDENT. 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 280100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270121ZJAN2004//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 11.4S6 64.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 64.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 11.7S9 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 12.2S5 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 12.7S0 64.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 13.0S4 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 64.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS.
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 08 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
270121Z JAN 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22
PGTW 270130) NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 002 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040128 21:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 14.9S4 64.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 64.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 15.9S5 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 16.6S3 63.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 17.0S8 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 17.7S5 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 63.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS. TC 10S IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK TO THE WEST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS
WHILE IN A GOOD ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE
STEERING THE SYSTEM AT A SHALLOWER LEVEL AND KEEP THE MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 36 HOURS. UKMET AND AVIATION ARE
STEERING AT A MORE APPROPRIATE LEVEL AND ARE TRACKING THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD SOONER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET AND
NCEP SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 AND 292100Z4. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 004 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040129 21:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 63.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 63.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 17.0S8 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 17.5S3 61.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 18.1S0 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 19.0S0 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 63.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 291730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED AND SLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND INCREASE ITS
SPEED. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS BEING BIASED WITH INTERACTION WITH THE REMINANTS OF TC 09S.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS MINUS GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z9
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040330 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 16.3S0 62.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 62.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 16.4S1 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 17.0S8 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.8S6 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.6S5 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 61.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 300530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD.
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD. TC 10S IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND INCREASE SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z6 AND 310900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040130 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 15.5S1 61.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 61.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.3S9 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.7S3 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.8S5 61.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.0S9 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 61.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TC 10S TO A NEW STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND SENDING TC 10S ON A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. TC 10S IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THEN RECURVE
EASTWARD UNDER THIS SCENARIO. TC 10S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 AND 312100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 008 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 15.7S3 62.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 62.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.5S2 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 17.3S1 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 18.1S0 65.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.1S1 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. THE LATEST ANALYSIS
OF ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE 15 NM DIAMETER IRREGULAR
EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND HAS WARMED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE.
TC 10S WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 16.0S7 62.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 62.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.7S4 64.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 17.3S1 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.2S1 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.3S3 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 63.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 760 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. TC 10S WILL
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
OUTFLOW WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z4 AND 020900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040201 21:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 16.6S3 65.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 65.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 17.2S0 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.2S1 68.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.4S4 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 21.1S4 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 65.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 685 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
102 AND 115 KNOTS. A RECENT 011646Z8 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS
THAT TC 10S HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL, SYMMETRICAL 10 NM DIAMETER
EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 10S
CONTINUES TO CYCLE WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINING FAVORABLE TC
10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 36
HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THEN MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 10S IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. TC 10S WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
AFTER 12 HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO LESSEN. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND
UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z1 AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 17.2S0 67.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 67.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.1S0 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.0S0 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.2S4 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 21.8S1 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 67.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 645 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 020530Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102, 115, AND 127 KNOTS. A 020700Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL, SYMMETRICAL 10 NM DIAMETER
EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTH-
EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN MORE POLEWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040202 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 17.2S0 69.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 69.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 18.1S0 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 19.3S3 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 20.7S9 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 22.4S8 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 69.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 600 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TAU 24 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 10S WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND
032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 17.5S3 70.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 70.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.1S0 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.2S2 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 20.6S8 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 22.4S8 71.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 70.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 600 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS
TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE ORIENTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 18.2S1 70.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 70.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 18.9S8 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 20.1S3 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 21.3S6 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 22.4S8 71.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 70.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 640 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO REDUCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR
ON THE EQUATORWARD SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE TC WHICH MAY BEGIN
TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3
AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.5S4 70.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 70.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.1S1 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.0S2 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.9S1 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.9S2 71.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 70.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 735 NM EAST OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND
115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 69.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 69.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.8S8 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 70.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.9S2 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 23.3S8 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 69.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 710 NM EAST OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN
IN INTENSITY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND
UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.9S9 69.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 69.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.7S0 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.7S1 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.9S4 73.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 70.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 700 NM EAST OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
DECREASES. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GFS FIELDS INDICATE
FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, RESULTING IN A FASTER
TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z1 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040206 21:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 23.8S3 75.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 75.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 25.8S5 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 26.9S7 78.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 27.7S6 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.3S9 076.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1040
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION
OVER TC 10S HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 10S HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 24 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_frank_jtwc_advisories.htm
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