Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GAFILO : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone GAFILO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040302 08:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 010821Z MAR 04//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S5 71.0E8 TO 13.0S4 66.6E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 020530Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S7 70.7E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
71.2E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4E7 70.7E4, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 030830Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040302 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020821ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 13.9S3 68.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 68.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 14.3S8 67.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.7S2 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.1S7 63.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.4S0 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 068.3E7.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8E2 69.9E4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9E3 68.7E1,
APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. TC 16S IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY
OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 020821Z MAR 04 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020830). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040303 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 13.4S8 63.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 63.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 13.6S0 61.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 13.8S2 58.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 13.9S3 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.1S6 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.4S9 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 63.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), HAS BEEN RELOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ON NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9, 032100Z6, 040300Z7 AND 040900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 003 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040303 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 12.3S6 60.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 60.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 11.6S8 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 11.4S6 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 11.6S8 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 12.3S6 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 59.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 16S HAS
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HOURS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWEST AT 48 HRS AS A PERIPHERAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR,GFDN AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040304 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 12.2S5 59.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 59.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 12.3S6 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 12.5S8 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 13.3S7 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.3S8 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 59.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
490 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. A RECENT ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING
UNIT (AMSU) PASS AT 040616Z7 SHOWS THAT TC 16S HAS FORMED
A SMALL, SYMMETRICAL EYE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN,
AFWA, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR
DOES NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS FAST AS THE OTHER AIDS
RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040600Z0 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED GRAMMAR IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040304 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 13.1S5 58.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 58.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 13.9S3 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 14.7S2 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.3S9 53.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 16.1S8 51.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 57.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 and
90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
WESTWARD FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONVECTION,
THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEYOND CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO EXCELLENT POLAR,
CROSS EQUATORIAL, AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR,
GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040305 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.5S9 56.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 56.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 14.2S7 55.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.9S4 53.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.7S3 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.7S4 50.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 56.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BANDING EYE HAS ONCE
AGAIN CLOSED OFF INTO A 15 NM EYE. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AS MOST OF THE MODELS PREDICT DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA, WBAR,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040305 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 14.3S8 55.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 55.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.0S6 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.8S4 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.8S5 50.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.0S9 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 054.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISTINCT 15 NM DIAMETER EYE. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. IMPROVED DUEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO AN INTENSIFICATION RATE THAT HAS BEEN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY DUE TO DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE MODERATE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM
OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS TURNING TC 16S
POLEWARD EARLIER THAN EGRR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5
AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040306 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
NAVCENTMETOC DET DIEGO GARCIA//30//
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 14.6S1 53.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 53.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.2S8 51.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.3S0 49.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.0S9 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.0S2 47.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 52.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
410 NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. A RECENT SSM/I IMAGE DEPICTS A DISTINCT 20 NM
EYE. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
FOR TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NCEP GFS DEPICT A WEAKER STEERING RIDGE
AND THEREFORE TURN TC 16S POLEWARD EARLIER. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE EGRR/NOGAPS SOLUTION DUE TO BETTER VERIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040306 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 15.0S6 51.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 51.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.7S3 49.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.1S9 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.8S7 46.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.6S8 46.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 051.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140. A RECENT SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS A DISTINCT
20 NM EYE AND SLIGHT ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES LAND.
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY FOR TC 16S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASED VENTILATION AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN,
AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND
072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040307 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 15.1S7 49.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 49.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.0S7 46.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.4S2 45.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.1S1 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.9S1 44.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 48.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
275 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS AND A WEAKENING TREND.
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT EROSION OF THE SOUTH-
WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR'S TERRAIN.
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED TOTHE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TRANSITION TC 16S INTO A
MORE POLWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSITY FOR TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON EGRR AND NOGAPS
DUE TO BETTER INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 16.2S9 46.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 46.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.5S3 45.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.0S0 44.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.7S9 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.3S7 45.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 046.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING OF TC 16S AS IT CONTINUES
TO INTERACT WITH LAND. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF TC 16S. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY OF TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071800Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND
082100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040308 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 18.1S0 44.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 44.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.4S4 43.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.8S0 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.2S6 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 24.0S6 46.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 43.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
180 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE BACK OVER MADAGASCAR.
TC 16S IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 18.7S6 43.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 43.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.5S5 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 20.6S8 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 21.5S8 44.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 22.7S1 45.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 42.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE BACK OVER MADAGASCAR. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE DYNAMIC AID EGRR IS NOT IN AGREEMENT DUE TO
OVER DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, EXCLUDING EGRR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040309 09:00z RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 19.7S7 42.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 42.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.1S4 42.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 22.5S9 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 23.6S1 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 24.5S1 44.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 42.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5,
WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE DYNAMIC AID EGRR
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER DUE TO EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH
A SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST THAT THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT INITIALIZE ON. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, EXCLUDING EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 20.9S1 43.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 43.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 21.8S1 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 22.4S8 44.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.0S5 44.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 23.6S1 45.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 43.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT.
UKMET EGRR DEVELOPS A RIDGE OVER MOZAMBIQUE, TURNING THE SYSTEM
EQUATORWARD AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OTHER MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR, BUT VARY IN SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (NICKY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 22.4S8 45.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S8 45.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 23.2S7 46.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.7S2 47.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 23.9S4 47.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 24.1S7 48.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.6S0 45.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 16S MADE LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 102300Z6 JUST NORTH OF MOROMBE, MADAGASCAR. THE
100000Z1 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT MOROMBE REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 27 KNOTS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 986.8 MILLIBARS.
TC 16S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ISLAND OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
INITIALLY AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS NOT APPLICABLE.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (NICKY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 23.4S9 45.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S9 45.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 24.0S6 46.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 24.5S1 47.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 25.0S7 47.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 25.8S5 49.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 46.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. AS TC 16S EMERGES OVER WATER,
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5,
WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE INITIALLY AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040311 09:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 23.9S4 46.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 46.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 24.3S9 47.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 24.8S4 48.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 25.2S9 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 46.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 110530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC
16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. WHEN TC 16S EMERGES OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5,
WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE INITIALLY AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 24.5S1 46.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 46.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 25.1S8 47.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 25.4S1 48.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 24.7S3 046.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 16S HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A REGION OF ELONGATED TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN TC 16S EMERGES OVER WATER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFWA MM5.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_gafilo_jtwc_advisories.htm
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