Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JUBA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone JUBA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040505 10:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050951Z MAY 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
9.1S0 77.3E7 TO 9.1S0 69.0E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 050530Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9 76.7E0. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6S5 76.8E1, HAS BEEN RELOCATED ABOUT 1 DEGREE
FURTHER NORTH NEAR 9.0S9 76.7E0, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO CONSOLIDATE ONTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION AND WEAK TO MARGINAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 061000Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040505 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050951ZMAY04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 8.7S5 76.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 76.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 8.8S6 73.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 8.9S7 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 9.2S1 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 9.4S3 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.7S5 75.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 051130Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SYNOPTIC REPORTS AT DIEGO GARCIA SHOW
STEADILY INCREASING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WITH THE
051355Z9 OBSERVATION REPORTING 20 KNOTS AND A DROP OF OVER
2 MB OF PRESSURE IN 24 HOURS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 23S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION OFFSET BY MARGINAL SHEAR FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, AND WBAI ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
NOGAPS IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER DUE TO POOR INITIALIZAITON.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS
12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 050951ZMAY04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040505 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 8.7S5 75.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 75.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 8.8S6 74.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 8.9S7 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 9.1S0 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 9.4S3 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 9.8S7 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 8.7S5 75.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 23S SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BALANCED BY MARGINAL SHEAR
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND WBAI ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK
BIAS DUE TO NORTHERN DYNAMIC OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9, 060900Z5,
061500Z2 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040506 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 8.8S6 75.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S6 75.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 8.8S6 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 9.0S9 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 9.1S0 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 9.3S2 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 9.4S3 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 8.8S6 75.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 23S SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BALANCED BY MARGINAL SHEAR
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5, 061500Z2, 062100Z9
AND 070300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040506 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 7.9S6 74.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S6 74.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 7.7S4 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 7.6S3 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 7.7S4 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 7.9S6 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 07.8S5 073.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25 AND 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND RECENT QUIKSCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NORTH OF PREVIOUS
POSITIONS. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 23S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0 AND
070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040506 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 7.7S4 74.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S4 74.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 7.5S2 75.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 7.7S4 74.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE STEERED BY A
LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY GRADIENT INDUCED BY CIRCULATIONS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR. BECAUSE THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
FURTHER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY DEVELOP BENEATH THIS AREA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 18 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040512 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (JUBA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 11.7S9 68.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 68.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 12.5S8 67.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 13.3S7 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.3S8 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.2S8 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 67.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (JUBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS REGENERATED AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS RECOUPLED WITH THE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH-WESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT
LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
24 HOURS, EXPECT TC 23S TO START WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND
132100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040513 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (JUBA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 12.8S1 67.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 67.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 13.9S3 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.4S0 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.7S4 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.3S2 68.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 67.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (JUBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
430 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 130600Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 23S
BRIEFLY DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS
NO LONGER EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE DATA. TC 23S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD, BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW
TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 23S HAS
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER PAST 12 HOURS. THIS TREND
IS FORECAST TO SLOW WITH ONLY MODERATE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS,
TC 23S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS AN
AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO BASED ON POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN
THE MODELS. EACH MODEL DOES DEPICT A GENERALLY POLEWARD
TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, PERSISTANCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040513 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (JUBA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 14.1S6 67.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 67.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.5S1 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.8S5 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.2S1 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.1S3 68.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 67.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (JUBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
485 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 131800Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE, THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 23S IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 48
HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, PERSISTANCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040514 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (JUBA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 15.5S1 67.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 67.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 17.1S9 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.9S8 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.7S9 69.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 68.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (JUBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
680 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS,
WITH ADJUSTMENT FOR RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM NOTED.
TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AS IT DISSIPATES. TC
23S HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS DECOUPLED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 36 HOURS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, PERSISTANCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040514 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (JUBA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 14.0S5 65.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 65.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 13.6S0 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 65.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (JUBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25, 35 AND 55 KNOTS, WITH ADJUSTMENT FOR RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM NOTED. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS DECOUPLED 160 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DECOUPLED AND
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN 12 HOURS UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AS THEY CONTINUE TO STEER TC 23S AT A HIGHER LEVEL DUE TO
POOR INITIALIZATION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z4 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_juba_jtwc_advisories.htm
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