Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KEN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KEN Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20040101 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 011451ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S2 123.9E5 TO 17.9S7
117.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 011130Z6 INDICATE
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S1 123.1E7. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: LATEST ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAND IS MOVING OFF SHORE AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTS LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021500Z8.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRRECTION: CORRECTED GRAMMAR AND
SPACING ERROR IN RMKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040101 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 122.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 122.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 16.6S3 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.9S6 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.3S1 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 17.8S6 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 121.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET
(EGRR), WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 011500 ). NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1
AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011451Z JAN 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 16.6S3 120.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 120.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.7S4 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 16.9S6 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 17.1S9 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.3S1 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 17.7S5 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 120.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR),
WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8,
022100Z5, 030300Z6 AND 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040102 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 16.5S2 119.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 119.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 16.6S3 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 16.7S4 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 16.9S6 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.1S9 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.5S3 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 118.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 021130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPROXIMATELY 70 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR), WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 16.4S1 118.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 118.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 16.7S4 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 17.1S9 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.6S4 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.1S0 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.9S8 110.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 118.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN MORE POLEWARD LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE WBAR
SOLUTION HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER RECURVING TC 08S TOWARDS THE
EQUATOR. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH
LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040103 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 16.4S1 117.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 117.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 16.6S3 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 17.0S8 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.5S3 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 18.0S9 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 18.9S8 109.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 117.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN,
UKMET (EGRR), AND WBAR. THE WBAR SOLUTION IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
RELATIVE TO THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS, RECURVING TC 08S TOWARDS THE
EQUATOR. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS
WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2, 031500Z9, 032100Z6 AND 040300Z7.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 16.4S1 117.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 117.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 16.7S4 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.1S9 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.5S3 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 17.9S7 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.5S4 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 116.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR),
AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9, 032100Z6, 040300Z7 AND 040900Z3.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040103 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 16.5S2 116.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 116.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 16.8S5 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.2S0 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.7S5 113.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.3S2 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.8S8 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 116.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z6, 040300Z7, 040900Z3 AND 041500Z0. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 17.1S9 116.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 116.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.7S5 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.4S3 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.2S2 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.0S2 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 116.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKENS THE RIDGE. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN,
AND UKMET (EGRR). THE GFDN SOLUTION IS A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS RECURVING
TC 08S TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7, 040900Z3,
041500Z0 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040104 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 17.6S4 116.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 116.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 18.4S3 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.5S5 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.4S6 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 21.2S5 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.4S7 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 116.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 032330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR).
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z4 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3, 041500Z0, 042100Z7 AND
050300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.0S9 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.1S1 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.2S4 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 21.2S5 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.4S7 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.4S7 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
36 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z0, 042100Z7, 050300Z8, AND 050900Z4. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040104 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 18.8S7 114.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 114.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 20.0S2 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.9S1 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 21.3S6 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 21.5S8 111.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 21.6S9 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 114.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS AND A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7, 050300Z8, 051500Z1, AND 051500Z1. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040104 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 18.5S4 115.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 115.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.2S2 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.0S2 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.6S8 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.0S3 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 20.5S7 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 08S REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THE POSTION OF TC 08S WAS
ACTUALLY LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST RESUTLING IN TC 08S
BEING RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 08S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS
CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1
AND 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040105 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 18.8S7 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.5S5 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 20.2S4 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.8S0 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.1S4 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.0S3 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 35 AND 45
KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN
WEAKEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040105 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.8S8 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.8S0 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.5S8 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.9S2 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.1S5 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 114.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, 35, AND 45 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040105 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 20.7S9 114.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 114.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 21.8S1 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 22.2S6 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.6S0 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.0S3 114.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 36
HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040105 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 21.1S4 114.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 114.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.8S1 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.7S1 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.7S2 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 114.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 36
HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5, 061500Z2 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040106 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 21.3S6 113.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 113.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 22.0S4 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.8S2 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 23.6S1 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 113.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052230Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 36 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2
AND 070300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040106 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 21.7S0 113.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 113.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.0S4 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 113.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 08S NO LONGER HAS DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO ADVECTION OF COOLER,
DRIER AIR AS INDICATED BY COLD AIR STRATOCUMULOUS CLOUDS NEAR THE CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY, SYNOPTIC AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
TAKEN ON CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS A SECOND
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE FORECAST POSITION IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 11 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ken_jtwc_advisories.htm
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