Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NICKY-HELMA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone NICKY-HELMA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040308 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080251Z MAR 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S5 90.8E7 TO 16.5S2 86.3E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080200Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S8 90.7E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.4N8 090.7E6,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION CO-LOCATED
WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080251Z MAR 04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 13.0S4 90.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 90.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 12.9S2 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 13.3S7 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 14.4S9 89.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.9S5 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 90.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTH
EASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATING POSSIBLE 35 KNOT WINDS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EQUATORWARD
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,(WTXS21 PGTW 080300). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 12.8S1 90.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 90.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 13.3S7 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 14.0S5 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.1S7 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.4S1 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 90.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 17S IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EQUATORWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BETTER DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL INCREASE INTENSITY RATES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 09000Z9 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND
100300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 13.6S0 91.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 91.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 14.2S7 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.3S9 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.6S3 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 17.9S7 87.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 90.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
350 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA ESTIMATES OF
50 KNOTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 17S IS NOW BEGINING TO MAKE ITS
POLEWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS OF
THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW WEAK OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS
ALLOWING TC 17S TO INTENSIFY. THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TC 17S SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND LEVEL
OFF OR EVEN WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. MOST MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AT THIS TIME, THE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES CAUSING INCREASED
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LINEAR OR EVEN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR,
EGRR, AFWA, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND
101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 14.6S1 90.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 90.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.7S3 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.1S9 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.6S5 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 90.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
405 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, AFWA, GFDN,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 90.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 90.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.9S6 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.1S0 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.2S2 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.3S5 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 90.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 17S IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LINEAR OR EVEN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040311 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.3S1 89.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 89.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.8S7 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.4S6 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 22.0S4 85.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 24.0S6 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 88.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC
17S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT THEIR TRACKS
SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040311 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.5S4 87.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 87.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 85.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 22.0S4 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 24.4S0 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 27.0S9 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 87.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
660 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 111130Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS TRANSITION INTO A
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND
121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 19.6S6 87.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 87.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 21.0S3 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 22.8S2 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 24.8S4 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 27.6S5 85.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 86.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
680 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR,
EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040312 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 19.8S8 85.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 85.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.0S3 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.7S1 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.4S0 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 26.0S8 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 85.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
800 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS. EARLIER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48 AS INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR KEEPS THE LLCC FROM RE-
COUPLING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND
131500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040313 03:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 010A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.1S4 83.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 83.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.8S2 82.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 25.7S4 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 83.4E5.
THIS WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED TO REMOVE THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
900 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30,
35 AND 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040313 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELM) WARNING NR 011A
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 23.1S6 84.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 84.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 84.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
975NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 131130Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS BEEN
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE IN A CONTINUED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR,
EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADJUSTED WARNING INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS
VICE 25 KNOTS.//
=========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_nicky-helma_jtwc_advisories.htm
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