Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KARA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KARA Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20070325 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250221Z MAR 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.8S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.1S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.7S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 116.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT TC 20S HAS FORMED IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS AND ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A REORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 20S
WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 250221Z MAR 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.4S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.8S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.2S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.7S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
AND ITS FORWARD MOTION IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED MOSTLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, BUT HAS STARTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING AND DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO CREATE A WEAK-
NESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND TURN
POLEWARD TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20S WILL
INTENSIFY AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND
262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070326 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.7S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.5S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.1S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.9S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 115.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-
WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20S HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A VISIBLE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST BREAKING DOWN THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) STEERING TC 20S. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INDICATED A RECURVATURE SCENARIO FOR TC 20S, BUT SHOW A MUCH SHARPER
RECURVATURE TO THE EAST THAN CURRENT SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE. THE
SYSTEM SPEED HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
HAS NOT SLOWED AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PRE-
VIOUS FORECAST. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE
STR, EVENTUALLY CAUSING A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNTIL LANDFALL. AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MAKE LANDFALL, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COASTAL EFFECTS THAT WEAKEN IT BEYOND TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070326 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.7S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.9S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.1S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.4S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH-
WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITIONING AND STORM MOTION
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE DAMPIER RADAR. TC
20S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS
OCCURRED NEAR 26/06Z WHEN SYSTEM HAD A PINPOINT EYE AND HAS DECREASED
SINCE THAT TIME. TC 20S IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH RIDGING EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
IS ENHANCING THE WEAKNESS AND DRIVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER EASTWARD
TRACK AS WELL AS CREATING A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO DECREASE ITS SPEED OF MOTION AS THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT FURTHER WEAKENS DUE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST AFTER TAU 12. THE CURRENT DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A SLOW, NEAR-QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
AFTER TAU 12. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE
WEAK EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070327 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 005
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.2S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.7S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.3S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.7S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 118.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20S IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) GRAD-
IENT ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYS-
TEM. TC 20S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTEND-
ING FROM NORTHERN AUSTRALIA INTO INDONESIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DUE TO HIGH VWS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL JUST
AFTER TAU 24, WITH A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
BEING A LIKELY SCENARIO. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREE-
MENT AFTER TAU 12, SO THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARLY ON PERSISTENCE
AND ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070327 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (KARA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.4S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 120.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (KARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND, BASED ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY, HAS MOVED
OVER LAND NEAR WALLAL DOWNS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS
VERY WEAK BANDING AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO REMAIN OVER
LAND WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_kara_jtwc_advisories.htm
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