Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DANI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DANI Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 990114 00:00z
132351Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S0 163.7E7 TO 18.4S3 164.5E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
132230Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
163.9E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THIS
SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO SUPPORTS A GOOD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE CONVECTION. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS
AREA IS NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND JUST WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMMS PRODUCTS INDICATE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS LIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 150000Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990114 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 14.9S4 164.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 164.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.8S4 164.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 16.7S4 165.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 17.6S4 165.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 18.4S3 166.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 164.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN CORAL SEA WHILE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS (KWBC) AND LOW CLOUD DRIFT
MOVEMENTS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. TC 11P HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE WITH INCREASING CONVECTION, MOSTLY WEST OF THE WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 11P IS ALSO FORECASTED TO
INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGHOUT THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWPN30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 132351Z JAN 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 140000 )NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1) AND 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9).
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990114 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 15.9S5 164.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 164.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 16.9S6 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 17.9S7 165.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.0S0 166.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 20.0S2 167.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 164.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS, 141230Z1 MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER DATA,
AND A PREVIOUS (141058Z9) TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION
(TRMM) MICROWAVE PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40 KNOTS) IS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES (141730Z1) OF 35-
45KTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS (35-40 KNOTS).
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND INFRARED ANIMATION INDICATE TC 11P HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPANDED ITS WINDFIELD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMMS PRODUCTS INDICATE GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 11P REMAINS IN A
BROAD TROUGH AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE WEAK STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 11P IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS WEAK STEERING FLOW. TC
11P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9) AND 152100Z9
(DTG 151951Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990115 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 17.0S8 164.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 164.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 17.9S7 165.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 18.8S7 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 19.7S7 166.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 20.5S7 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 164.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 6 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS
(KGWC AND PGTW) AND A 142307Z7 SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 11P HAS
FLUCTUATED IN APPEARENCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATIONS.
THE SYSTEM HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO APPEAR MORE ORGANIZED AND
SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS, AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WITH ONLY WEAK WESTWARD SHEAR
SLIGHTLY INHIBITING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2) AND
160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0).
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990115 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 17.8S6 164.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 164.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 18.5S4 164.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 19.3S3 165.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 20.2S4 165.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 21.1S4 166.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 164.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 11P (DANI) HAS INTENSIFIED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED A WARM SPOT IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A FORMING EYE. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND T4.5 (75 KTS). TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO ITS EAST, THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TC 11P (DANI) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON 151800Z5 SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0) AND
162100Z0 (DTG 161951Z3).
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990116 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 16.9S6 164.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 164.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 17.0S8 163.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.6S3 163.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 16.6S3 164.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 17.1S9 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 164.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
160530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 11P (DANI)
HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED A 6 NM
DIAMETER EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY, TC 11P
(DANI) IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING REGIME. THERE IS ONE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER WEAKER RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST,
AND NEITHER RIDGE ARE PROVIDING A DOMINANT STEERING FORCE. IN
ADDITION, AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DUE SOUTH IN THE TASMAN SEA IS
BLOCKING TC 11P (DANI) FROM FALLING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FORECAST PATH TRIES TO
BALANCE THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING INFLUENCES WHILE ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGE TO BECOME DOMINANT BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
TC 11P (DANI) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG 161951Z3) AND 170900Z7
(DTG 170751Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990116 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 15.8S4 163.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 163.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 15.1S7 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 15.3S9 164.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 16.1S8 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 17.0S8 164.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 163.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS AND IS PROBABLY MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP. TC 11P (DANI)
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS A 12NM
DIAMETER EYE. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 161730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). STEERING
INFLUENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THIS SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM=S RECENT MOVEMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
THEN TURN SOUTHWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTHWEST EXTENDS
AND STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT TC 11P (DANI) WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24
HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS WIND-GENERATED UPWELLING LOWERS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AND CLIMATOLOGICAL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG 170751Z1) AND 172100Z1
(DTG 171951Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990117 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.4S9 163.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 163.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 13.4S8 163.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 13.1S5 163.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.1S5 164.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.1S6 164.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 163.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP WEST
OF VANUATU IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 11P (DANI) HAS LOST ITS EYE FOR THE
TIME BEING AS IT MOVED INTO AN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AREA TO ITS
NORTH. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 170530Z6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5
(100 KNOTS). A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF TC 11P (DANI) HAS
PROVIDED THE STEERING FORCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. BY
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION, TC 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO MAKE A
U-TURN SOUTHWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTH
AND TO THE EAST OF TC 11P (DANI) AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
FORCE. TC 11P (DANI) WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN NOGAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P (DANI) WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171951Z4) AND
180900Z8 (DTG 180751Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990117 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 13.1S5 163.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 163.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.9S2 164.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.7S1 164.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.7S2 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 16.0S7 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 164.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND APPEARING TO
MAKE A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP WEST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 11P (DANI) HAS A WELL DEVELOPED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND MAY REFORM AN EYE IN THE NEXT 03
TO 06 HOURS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 171730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (100 KNOTS). TC 11P
(DANI) CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWING ITS FORWARD
MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE
LOOP AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO ITS EAST. TC 11P (DANI) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO EXISTS IN WHICH TC 11P
(DANI) INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CORAL
SEA, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 18S9 155E1. THIS WOULD RESULT IN TC 11P
(DANI) SLOWING BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND WOULD TEMPORARILY CAP THE
INTENSITY OF TC 11P (DANI) AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST ASSIMILATES INTO TC 11P (DANI)S CYCLONIC INFLOW PATTERN.
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z8 (DTG 180751Z2) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181951Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990118 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 12.9S2 165.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 165.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.4S8 166.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.5S0 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 15.9S5 167.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 17.6S4 167.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 165.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
NORTHERN VANUATU OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 180530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (100 KNOTS). TC 11P
(DANI) HAS BEGUN TURNING SOUTHWARD AS THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE IS
SWITCHING FROM THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS EAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REPUBLIC OF VANUATU AND INTO HOG HARBOR ON THE
ISLAND OF ESPRITU SANTO WITHIN 30 HOURS. TC 11P (DANI) IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST DUE TO THE
INCREASED FRICTION OVER THE ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DUE TO AN 182316Z1 SCATTEROMETRY PASS WHICH INDICATED 35
KNOT WINDS 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181951Z5) AND
190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990118 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 13.7S1 166.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 166.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.4S9 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 15.5S1 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 16.9S6 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.4S3 168.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 166.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (100
KNOTS). TC 11P (DANI) HAS CONTINUED TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED
STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AS THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF TC 11P (DANI), THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, AND
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SLIGHT ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECASTED.
TC 11P (DANI)IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
INTERACTION WITH NEARBY ISLANDS, HOWEVER, WILL HINDER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3) AND
192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WARNING 011 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990119 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 16.9S6 167.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 167.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 18.5S4 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 19.9S9 167.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 21.3S6 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 22.8S2 167.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 167.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 8
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
AND T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 11P (DANI) HAS MOVED BACK OUT OVER OPEN
WATERS NORTHEAST OF NEW CALEDONIA AFTER LOSING SOME INTENSITY
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
SLOW THE TRACK AND TURN IT JUST WEST OF SOUTH FROM THE 24 TO 36
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A
SOUTHWARD TRACK. TC 11P (DANI) IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOURS PERIOD. THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO ITS NORTHWEST IN THE SALOMON
SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 26 FEET. REFER
TO WWPN31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990120 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 18.4S3 167.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 167.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 19.8S8 168.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 21.3S6 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 23.0S5 168.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 24.9S5 169.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 167.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
200530Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
FROM PEKOA AIRPORT/SANTO AND LAMAP/MALEKOULA (WMO 91554 AND 91555)
VANUATU. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 11P (DANI) HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF THE VANUATU ISLAND CHAIN.
TC 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 11P
(DANI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8) AND
210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990120 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 20.8S0 168.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 168.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 22.7S1 168.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 24.7S3 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 26.8S6 170.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 29.0S1 171.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 168.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 201730Z3
INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND T5.5
(100 KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS INCORPORATED INFLOW FROM A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P TO
ITS WEST HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE IT IS FAIR. TROPICAL CYCLONE
11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. TC 11P
(DANI) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING
SHEAR, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 2018001 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG
210751Z6) AND 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990121 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 22.8S2 168.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 22.8S2 168.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 24.8S4 169.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 26.8S6 170.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 28.7S7 171.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 30.1S4 173.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 169.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90
KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD EXCEPT TO THE
WEST, WHERE OUTFLOW FROM TC 13P MAY BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. TC
11P (DANI) SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG
211951Z9) AND 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990121 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 24.9S5 171.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S5 171.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 27.3S2 173.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 29.8S9 175.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 32.1S6 178.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 33.9S5 177.6W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 172.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING THE DOMINANT
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW. TC 11P (DANI) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM TC 13P TO THE WEST IS CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 211730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (75 KNOTS) ADJUSTED BY 211140Z9
SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) IS FORECAST TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 11P (DANI) IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM TC 13P AND THE EFFECT OF COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. AFTER 36 HOURS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY AS IT COMPLETES TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 211140Z9 SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7) AND 222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990122 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 27.2S1 173.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 27.2S1 173.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 29.3S4 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 31.6S0 179.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 34.0S7 177.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 27.7S6 174.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 220530Z2
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS 220000Z4 SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE
TC 11P IS UNDERGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INDEED,
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TOTALLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION 70 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AS THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 (DTG
221951Z0) AND 230900Z4 (DTG 230751Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
(OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_dani_jtwc_advisories.htm
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