WTXS22 PGTW 20011121 03:00z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210021Z NOV 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S3 81.9E8 TO 13.5S9 86.4E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210130Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 83.1E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
82.2E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 83.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
IS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220300Z7.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3 130.3E7//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20011121 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 12.1S4 83.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 83.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 12.9S2 82.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 13.5S9 82.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 14.1S6 81.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 14.9S4 79.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 83.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KNOTS. MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY MID PERIOD WHICH SHOULD
TURN TC 04S TO THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE
AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AVAILABLE NWP
(NOGAPS, AVN, AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH A CUT-OFF
DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT TC 04S FROM EMBEDDING IN THE NORTHEASTERLIES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THE CUT-OFF SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE TC 04S AND FILL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210251Z NOV 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 210300). NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (NO NAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20011121 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 13.2S6 83.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 83.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 13.7S1 83.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 14.3S8 81.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 15.0S6 79.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 15.5S1 77.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 83.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S, LOCATED 727 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
BY MID PERIOD WHICH SHOULD TURN TC 04S TO THE WEST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, AND THE UKMET
GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND
PREVENTING TC 04S FROM EMBEDDING IN THE NORTHEASTERLIES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL TRACKS WEST, SHEARED FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20011122 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 12.0S3 83.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 83.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 12.8S1 82.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 13.7S1 81.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 14.4S9 79.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 15.1S7 77.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 15.6S2 73.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 83.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED 700 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTH-SOTHWESTWARD AT
01 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS, AND A 35-KNOT WIND
REPORT ON THE 220058Z7 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 04S
HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, UKMET GLOBAL, AND GFDN) ALL
AGREE WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO
DECREASING SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7
AND 230900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20011122 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- NEAR 12.5S8 81.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 81.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 12.8S1 80.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 13.2S6 79.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 13.3S7 77.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 13.4S8 76.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 81.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, AND UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE
WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20011123 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- NEAR 12.8S1 80.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 80.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 13.0S4 78.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 13.3S7 76.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 13.5S9 73.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 13.9S3 71.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 79.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED 560 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN, AND UKMET GLOBAL) ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PREDOMINANT WEST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200204_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]