Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS22 PGTW 20020409 17:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
195 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0S8 128.9E0 TO 11.0S2 123.5E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091540Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5S3
128.0E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S0 130.5E9, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 128.8E9, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN
IN THE TIMOR SEA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
12.0S3. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101730Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020410 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 9.3S2 127.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 127.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 10.1S2 125.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 10.8S9 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 11.4S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 11.7S9 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 9.5S4 126.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF
TIMOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 091938Z0 TRMM PASS DEPICTS
INCREASED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION SURROUNDING A COMPACT SYSTEM. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE TIMOR SEA.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT TC 22S WILL INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS
TIMOR, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THREE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN BLENDED WITH THE BAROTROPIC ADVECTION
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 091730Z APR 02
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 091721). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-
JERY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020410 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 9.9S8 124.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 124.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 10.2S3 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 10.4S5 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.7S8 118.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.9S0 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 124.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TIMOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ISLAND OF TIMOR HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. A 101320Z7 SSMI PASS SHOWS THE WRAPPING DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 22S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AUSTRALIA INTO THE TIMOR SEA. TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
THE ISLAND OF SUMBA MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FIVE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDING THE NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVIATION, AND BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101200Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020411 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 10.0S1 122.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 122.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 10.1S2 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.3S4 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.4S5 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.5S6 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 121.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED OVER SAVU SEA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A 35 KNOT SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORT (ZCAO7).
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 22S HAS CLEARED THE
ISLAND OF TIMOR AND IS CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAVU SEA. A
102214Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS SHOWED DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
SIDES. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH SUMBA ISLAND. AFTER TC 22S MOVES WEST OF SUMBA
ISLAND AND BACK OVER THE OPEN WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSITY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FIVE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS THAT INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVIATION,
AFWA MM5 AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020411 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 10.0S1 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.1S2 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.3S4 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.6S7 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.1S3 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 119.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED ON THE WEST COAST OF
SUMBA ISLAND IN THE SAVU SEA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER SUMBA
ISLAND. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A MARGINAL
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF
THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS EAST OF JAVA. THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND AND
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SEVEN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
THAT INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVIATION, TCLAPS, TLAPS,
AFWA MM5 AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020412 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 10.2S3 117.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 117.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.5S6 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.9S0 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.4S6 109.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 11.9S1 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 116.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF JAVA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT TRMM AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OFF
OF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 22S SHOULD MOVE IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A NWP BLEND USING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, THE
BOM TLAPS, AND GFDN. INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND AND BENEATH A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020412 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 10.5S6 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.9S0 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.6S8 109.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.3S6 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.2S6 104.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 114.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A 121039Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION LACKS
ORGANIZATION AND IS SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 22S SHOULD MOVE IN
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A NWP BLEND USING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP
AVN, TLAPS, AND GFDN. TC 22S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND ENCOUNTERS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020413 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 11.4S6 111.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 111.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 12.1S4 108.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 13.0S4 105.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 14.3S8 103.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 16.1S8 100.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 110.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED 200 NM SOUTH OF JAVA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 122217Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 22S
REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR NORTH WEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A NWP BLEND USING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TLAPS,
AND GFDN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 22S HAS BEEN HINDERED AS IT TRACKS
NEAR THE COAST OF JAVA, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM JAVA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020413 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 109.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 109.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.7S0 106.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.7S1 103.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.6S1 101.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 15.7S3 99.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 108.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY INTERACTION WITH JAVA. DEEP
CONVECTION DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AND HAS ONLY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED,
RESULTING IN A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TC 22S IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND REMAINS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR NORTH
WEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. DEVELOPMENT IS FORECASTED TO BE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE, AIDED BY PROXIMITY NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND IMPROVED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SIX DYNAMIC
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND
141500Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020414 03:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 009A
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 12.4S7 107.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 107.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.3S7 105.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.5S0 102.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 15.7S3 100.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 16.8S5 99.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 106.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED 290 NM SOUTH OF JAVA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 132315Z5 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. TC 22S IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND
THE MEDIUM BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND
150300Z9. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED SPELLING IN REMARKS
SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020414 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 13.7S1 105.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 105.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.8S3 103.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 16.0S7 101.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 16.6S3 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 16.9S6 98.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 104.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 141036Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED. TC 22S IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND REMAINS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TRAVELS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
OUTFLOW TO INSTIGATE CONVECTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL,
NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND 151500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020415 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 15.5S1 101.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 101.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 16.8S5 99.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 17.5S3 98.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 17.8S6 97.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 18.2S1 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 101.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142302Z2 SSM/I PASS. THE
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. RECENT
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 22S REMAINS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTH
WEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET
SPECTRAL, NCEP AVIATION, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 AND 160300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020415 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 16.1S8 98.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 98.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 16.4S1 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 97.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A
151138Z9 SSM/I PASS. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF
RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ONLY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINS. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING LLCC. TC 22S SHOULD TRACK TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND THE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bonnie_jtwc_advisories.htm
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