WTXS21 PGTW 20011231 09:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 310851Z DEC 01//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 20.5S7 39.6E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 310730Z4 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8 38.3E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5S5
36.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8 38.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
WEST OF MADAGASCAR, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE CURVATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE LLCC IS WITHIN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020101 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CYPRIEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 20.2S4 41.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 41.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 20.5S7 42.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 20.9S1 43.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 21.4S7 44.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 22.0S4 45.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 41.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CYPRIEN), LOCATED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND A 010322Z8
QUIKSCAT PASS THAT INDICATES UN-FLAGGED WIND SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THIS
WEAKNESS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 10 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 310851Z
DEC 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 310900) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020101 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CYPRIEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 21.1S4 42.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 42.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 21.9S2 43.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 22.9S3 44.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 23.9S4 46.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6   42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CYPRIEN), LOCATED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
STARTING TO DROP, (CI 2.5 AND 3.0) THE WARNING INTENSITY WILL BE
BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING A FEW REMAINING RAIN
CONTAMINATED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES ARE
HAVING A PROFOUND EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR AND AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST NOGAPS AND AVN
NCEP RUN, INDICATE A BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN ANALYZED WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 08S
STALLS IN THE CHANNEL AND BEGINS A EQUATORWARD TRACK BY MID PERIOD,
AND THE DISTURBANCE DEEPENS AND TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. BASED ON THE
CURRENT MOTION OF TC 08S AND THE UKMET SPECTRAL, WHICH AGREES WITH
THE EARLIER MENTIONED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO, WE WILL BASE THE FORECAST
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020102 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CYPRIEN) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 21.8S1 43.4E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 43.4E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 22.3S7 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 22.9S3 44.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 43.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CYPRIEN), LOCATED NEAR MOROMBE,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS AND A 43 KNOT
SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM MOROMBE (67131). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
MAKE LANDFALL. A COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION OF TC 08S AND GFDN, WHICH AGREES WITH
THE EARLIER MENTIONED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO, WE WILL BASE THE FORECAST
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020102 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CYPRIEN) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 23.0S5 43.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 43.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 23.7S2 44.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 43.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CYPRIEN), LOCATED NEAR TOLIARA, 
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS 
AND A 29 KNOT SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM TOLIARA (67161). UW-CIMSS 
ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION 
IS SHEARED EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS 
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND. A COMBINATION OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR AND AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION 
OF TC 08S AND GFDN, WHICH AGREES WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED SYNOPTIC 
SCENARIO, WE WILL BASE THE FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONTINUED 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 
10 FEET. TC 08S IS DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OVER LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_cyprien_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]