Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ERROL : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS22 PGTW 20020509 06:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1S7 97.8E4 TO 7.9S6 93.3E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 6.4S0 97.5E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS EAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 TO
30 KNOTS. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UW CIMSS CHARTS
REVEAL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100621Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020509 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090621Z MAY 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 7.0S7 96.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0S7 96.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 7.3S0 95.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 7.6S3 94.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 7.8S5 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 8.0S8 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 7.1S8 96.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 091739Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS REVEALS WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 090621Z MAY 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 090630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020510 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 6.2S8 97.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S8 97.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 6.4S0 97.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 6.7S3 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 7.0S7 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 7.2S9 95.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 6.3S9 97.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS DRIFTED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION WAS RELOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS
REVEALED WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED IMAGERY
INDICATES DECREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 24S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020510 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 6.2S8 97.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S8 97.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 6.4S0 97.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 6.7S3 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 6.8S4 95.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 6.9S5 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 6.3S9 97.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS DRIFTED
WESTWARD AT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS CYCLING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020511 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 6.1S7 96.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1S7 96.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 6.4S0 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 6.6S2 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 7.0S7 94.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 7.4S1 93.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 6.2S8 96.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS DRIFTED
WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 110530Z0 MULTISPRECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
COALESCING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 24S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020511 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 6.1S7 95.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1S7 95.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 6.3S9 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 6.7S3 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 7.2S9 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 7.5S2 91.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 6.2S8 95.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS
CYCLING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 111602Z1 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) 37 GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTED A WEAK
SECONDARY CIRCULATION DIRECTLY WEST OF TC 24S. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
23S (KESINY) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020512 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 6.3S9 95.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.3S9 95.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 6.7S3 94.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 7.2S9 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 7.7S4 92.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 8.2S0 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 6.4S0 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
REMAINED STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 120530Z1 MULTISPRECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS CYCLING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 24S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK MET
GLOBAL, AVIATION, GFDN, AND THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TCLAPS MODELS.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND
130900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020512 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 7.4S1 94.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 94.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 8.1S9 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 8.7S5 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 9.4S3 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 9.8S7 91.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 7.6S3 94.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AVIATION, GFDN, AND THE BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 008 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020513 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 8.8S6 95.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S6 95.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 9.4S3 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 10.4S5 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 11.6S8 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.1S5 96.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.9S7 96.0E5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL) HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION AND A 131515Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DECREASING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL PERIPHERY RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 24S IS FORECASTED
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO AN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AVIATION, GFDN, AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE BLEND OF ALL THE AIDS.
HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND
142100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020514 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 10.0S1 96.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 96.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 11.4S6 97.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 96.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 24S IS FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE IN 12
HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK MET
GLOBAL, AVIATION, GFDN, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_errol_jtwc_advisories.htm
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