WTXS21 PGTW 20000120 20:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202021Z JAN 00//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 202030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S5 117.4E3 TO 20.6S8 111.4E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
201800Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0
116.9E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), EVIDENT IN SYNOPTIC AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. SHIP REPORTS AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEAR 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE THE CENTER OF THE LLCC AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY OUT OF DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA,
REVEALS VERY LITTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE SOUTHERN-MOST
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 212030Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000121 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z3 --- NEAR 16.4S1 116.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 116.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 17.5S3 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 19.0S0 115.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 21.4S7 115.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER LAND
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 23.9S4 117.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4  116.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEAST INDIAN
OCEAN, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AND TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 KNOTS (10
MINUTE AVERAGE) AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. TC 06S HAS TRACKED WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND AROUND THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN
AUSTRALIA THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER ENHANCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK
AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL NEAR
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAIR OUTFLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AND UNDER THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND, TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE AROUND THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 202021Z JAN 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 202030 ). NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6), 211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3), 212100Z6 (DTG
211951Z9) AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000121 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 16.9S6 115.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 115.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 17.8S6 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 18.9S8 113.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 21.3S6 112.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 24.9S5 113.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 115.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC REPORTS
AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPID WEAKENING OF TC 06S. TC 06S HAS
TRACKED WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT
OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT,
ALSO SHOWS A VERY STRONG JET AND VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF AUSTRALIA, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OCEAN. TC 06S
IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNTIL IT
IS COMPLETELY SHEARED APART AND ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9) AND 220900Z3 (DTG
220751Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000121 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z6 --- NEAR 17.8S6 115.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 115.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 19.8S8 114.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 21.9S2 113.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 25.4S1 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 114.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND TC 06S OVER THE
PAST 3 HOURS. TC 06S HAS TRACKED WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET.
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS A VERY STRONG JET
AND VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OCEAN. TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND MAKING LANDFALL AT THE TIP OF THE NORTHWEST
CAPE IN 24 HOURS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND BE
ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG
220151Z1) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000121 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 18.0S9 115.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 115.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 19.1S1 115.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 20.3S5 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 21.5S8 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 22.7S1 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 115.7E4.
RECENT DMSP NIGHT-TIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM FURTHER EAST-
NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS NOW
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211425Z5 DMSP NIGHT-TIME VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION. THE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION HAS FORMED DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND EASTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF TC 06S. TC 06S HAS TRACKED WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE LLCC,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, WHICH IS SHEARING CONVECTION
SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY
UNTIL THE 36 HOUR POINT WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1), 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7), 221500Z0 (DTG
221351Z4) AND 222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000122 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- NEAR 18.5S4 115.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 115.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 19.3S3 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.3S5 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.6S9 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.9S3 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 115.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
212330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER THE
LLCC HAS MOVED BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION.  TC 06S HAS TRACKED WITHIN
THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
REORIENTS NORTH TO SOUTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
REVEAL STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, WHICH IS SHEARING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD. TC
06S IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL THE 36 HOUR
POINT WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z4 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7),
221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4), 222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0) AND 230300Z8 (DTG
230151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000122 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 18.9S8 115.4E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 115.4E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 19.8S8 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 20.9S1 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 22.2S6 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 23.3S8 115.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 115.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
220530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS OF 35 KNOTS. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT SHIP REPORTS JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED OVERALL
DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING OVER COASTAL NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA
BETWEEN EXMOUTH AND PORT HEDLAND. A 220542Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PLATEAU WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT POLEWARD
CAUSING TC 06S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AFTER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC NEAR THE EIGHTY MILE
BEACH AREA. AFTERWARD, TC 06S WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND DISSIPATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4), 222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0), 230300Z8 (DTG
230151Z2) AND 230900Z4 (DTG 230751Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000122 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 116.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 116.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.1S3 116.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.1S4 117.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.3S7 117.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 116.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT HEDLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS OF
30 KNOTS. TC 06S HAS TAKEN A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
PLATEAU HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED FURTHER EAST THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THIS IS DUE PRIMARILY TO THE SUDDEN
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN QUASI-
STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS ALSO INCREASED IN AMPLITUDE. TC 06S
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE PILBARA COAST AROUND 230600Z1 AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000122 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- NEAR 19.9S9 116.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 116.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 20.9S1 117.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 22.1S5 117.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.2S4 116.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS
AND SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AS TC 06S APPROACHES
LAND, HOWEVER CONVECTION IS ISOLATED. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE
PORT HEDLAND RADAR SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS MOVING
ASHORE NEAR PORT WALCOTT. RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT TC 06S IS JUST NORTH
OF PORT WALCOTT AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT WALCOTT AT
APPROXIMATELY 230200Z7. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THE 12 HOUR
POINT. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2), 230900Z4 (DTG 230751Z8)
AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000123 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z5 --- NEAR 20.6S8 117.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 117.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.8S1 118.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 117.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND HAS MADE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AT ABOUT 222330Z2. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION. ANIMATED
RADAR DATA FROM THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDS EAST OF THE LLCC. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200006_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]