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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ASTRIDE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ASTRIDE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 19991224 23:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240221Z DEC 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 240230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S7 72.2E1 TO 12.6S9 62.4E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241730Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 71.7E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED WITH LITTLE INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 200 MB CHART
INDICATE THAT THE AREA HAS CONTINUED GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 252330Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991225 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 01
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 12.8S1 70.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 70.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 13.3S7 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 13.6S0 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 13.8S2 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 14.4S9 60.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 69.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN, APPOXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 242330Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE AND INCREASE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TC 03S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MINIMAL SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING SHEAR AFTER THIS
PERIOD, HOWEVER, MAY BEGIN TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 242321Z4 DEC 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 242330). NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7) AND 260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991225 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 12.4S7 69.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 69.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 12.6S9 66.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 13.1S5 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.9S3 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.8S3 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 68.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 251130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 250832Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
REGIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SYNOPTIC DATA
CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS OVER THE DANGEROUS (SOUTH)
SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 03S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ZIMBABWE AFRICA
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TAKING A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER SOUTHEAST AFRICA.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5) AND 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991226 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 13.1S5 66.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 66.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 13.5S9 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 14.1S6 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.8S3 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.1S7 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 66.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 252330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251631Z8 MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUEING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER.
VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER IMAGES
CONFIRMED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS OVER THE DANGEROUS (SOUTHERN)
SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 03S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE JUST EAST OF
MADAGASCAR MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN HINDERING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991226 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 13.3S7 64.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 64.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.8S2 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.4S9 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.9S4 58.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.3S9 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 64.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTHEAST
OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 261130Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND
DECREASING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITH A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE
SURROUNDING THREE FIFTHS (SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH) OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TC 03S
(ASTRIDE). TC 03S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING MECHANISM OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ZIMBABWE AFRICA EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S SHOULD BEGIN
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST AFRICA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG
270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991227 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 14.3S8 63.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 63.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.8S3 61.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.2S8 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.4S0 57.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 15.5S1 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 62.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHEAST
OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 262330Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 262158Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM
HAD WOBBLED SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT HAS BEGUN TO
RETURN TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 03S HAS TRACKED WITHIN
THE STEERING FLOW OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH EXTENDING
FROM MOZAMBIQUE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE INITIAL 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991227 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 14.6S1 61.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 61.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.2S8 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.6S2 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 15.9S5 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 15.9S5 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 60.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTHEAST
OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 271130Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A WARM SPOT (POSSIBLE
CLOUD-FILLED EYE) HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. A 270742Z2
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTS FORMATION OF
A PARTIAL EYEWALL WRAPPING NORTHEAST TO WEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS
IMPRESSIVE WITH AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 03S HAS
TRACKED WITHIN THE STEERING MECHANISM OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST AFRICA. TC 03S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING
MORE WESTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR
BUILDS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991228 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 15.0S6 59.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 59.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.5S1 58.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 15.8S4 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 15.4S0 54.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.4S9 52.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 59.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
EAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AND A 272221Z6 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATED CONVECTION WAS LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 03S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS AFTER WEAKENING OVER THE SIX PREVIOUS HOURS. OVERALL,
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING AROUND THE CENTER AND INTENSITY
REMAINS STEADY. UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TC AS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TC 03S HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH RIDGES WESTWARD INTO
ANOTHER HIGH OVER SOUTH AFRICA. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH
OVER SOUTH AFRICA SHOULD BUILD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE RESULTANT STEERING
FLOW SHOULD THEN STEER TC 03S WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND 290300Z4 (DTG
290151Z8).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991228 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.2S8 57.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 57.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 15.2S8 56.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 14.8S3 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.2S7 53.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 13.4S8 52.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 57.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST OF ANTALAHA, NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. HOWEVER, SOME CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED BUT IS ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS
CHARTS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TC
AS OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME,
TC 03S SHOULD TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EASTWARD FROM MOZAMBIQUE ACROSS NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN INTENSIFY
SLOWLY UNDER AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG
290151Z8) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991229 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 15.4S0 57.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 57.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 15.3S9 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 15.0S6 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.3S8 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 13.1S5 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 57.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST OF ANTALAHA, NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
282330Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY
(55 KTS) IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S CONTINUES TO CYCLE. IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATION
INDICATES TC 03S HAS SLOWED AND DRIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TC AS OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. TC 03S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TC 03S SHOULD TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM MOZAMBIQUE ACROSS MADAGASCAR. TC 03S
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND INCREASE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE TC. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BE A MINIMAL TC (35 KTS) BY THE
48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. WIND RADII ARE OMITTED FOR TC=S OF 35 KTS
OR LESS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1) AND 300300Z6 (DTG
300151Z0).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991229 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 15.5S1 55.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 55.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 15.5S1 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 15.1S7 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 14.6S1 49.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 13.8S2 47.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 55.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST OF ANTALAHA, NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
291130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY
(55 KTS) IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT IS CONFINED
PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT TC 03S IS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UW-
CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 03S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THEN TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM MOZAMBIQUE ACROSS MADAGASCAR. TC 03S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDSHEAR
AND ALSO DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AFTER 36 HOURS. TC 03S IS FORECAST
TO BE A MINIMAL TC (35 KTS) BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991230 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 15.3S9 54.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 54.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 15.0S6 53.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 14.6S1 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 13.9S3 49.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 54.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
EAST OF MAROANTSETRA, MADAGASCAR, AND HAS TRACKED GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 292330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AUGMENTED BY 292132Z9 NRL
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM 291339Z7 SCATTEROMETER
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF CI3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND CI4.0 (65 KNOTS). ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-FORMED
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE CENTERED OVER DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER NRL MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
REVEAL THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED NEARLY 78
NM NORTHWEST OF THIS CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS CHART INDICATES STRONG
DIVERGENCE AND LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM.
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE GALE WIND DISTRIBUTION IS HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF GALE
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. TC 03S (ASTRIDE) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH. NEAR THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST
TRACK PHILOSOPHY. TC 03S (ASTRIDE) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED
FROM CURRENT WIND RADII. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z0) AND 310300Z7
(DTG 310151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991230 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 14.8S3 53.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 53.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 14.4S9 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 13.9S3 50.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 13.5S9 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 53.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 301130Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPROXIMATELY
30 NM NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION, WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
TC 03S (ASTRIDE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING MECHANISM OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR TO THE COAST OF TANZANIA. TC 03S
(ASTRIDE) SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1) AND 311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991231 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 14.1S6 51.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 51.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 13.3S7 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 12.9S2 48.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 51.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR AND HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 302330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI)
PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. BOTH ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMI IMAGERY INDICATE THE
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR TO THE COAST OF TANZANIA.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VOHEMAR BY 311300Z8 AS A 40 KNOT
SYSTEM, TC 03S WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 19991231 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 13.4S8 50.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 50.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 12.7S0 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 12.7S0 48.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 50.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM
EAST OF VOHEMAR, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
311130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS FEW CLOUD LINES
ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN MADAGASCAR MOUNTAIN RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND 200 MB ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS NO LONGER ABOVE
THE SYSTEM BUT SITUATED TO THE EAST. A 310414Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND FAILED TO INDICATE A
CIRCULATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING MECHANISM OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR TO THE COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE. TC 03S SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 010000Z1 JUST
NORTH OF VOHEMAR AS A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. AFTERWARD, REMNANTS OF TC 03S
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REINTENSIFICATION IS
UNLIKELY HOWEVER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000101 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 12.8S1 49.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 49.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 12.7S0 47.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 48.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), HAS CROSSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 312330Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVED OVER
LAND. SSMI IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION,
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
MECHANISM OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. REMNANTS OF TC
03S WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z1 IS 10 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000101 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 12.6S9 47.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 47.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 12.7S0 45.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 46.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE), HAS MOVED INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 011130Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WEAKENED BY LAND INTERACTION AND
EASTERLY SHEAR. TC 03S (ASTRIDE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING MECHANISM OF THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 8 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_astride_jtwc_advisories.htm
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