Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CONNIE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CONNIE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20000125 10:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 250953Z JAN 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250601Z JAN 00//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW
250600)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 15.4S0 56.1E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 250530Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S0 56.3E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7
56.5E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S0 56.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTS A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 261000Z9.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 23.1S6 172.5W5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000125 21:00z COR
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 15.7S3 56.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 56.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 15.9S5 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 16.5S2 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 17.2S0 53.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 17.9S7 52.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.6S6 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 56.1E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED
CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHICH HAS
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 08S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 250953Z4 JAN 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 251000) NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5), 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1), 261500Z4 (DTG
261351Z8) AND 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
07P (JO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: TO CHANGE THE WORD SIX TO TWELVE IN
THE REMARKS SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000126 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 15.0S6 55.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 55.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 15.0S6 54.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 15.1S7 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.4S0 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 16.0S7 53.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 18.4S3 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 55.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF ANTATAHA, MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTION OR BANDING WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS
WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS UNDER THE WEAK STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG
260753Z3), 261500Z4 (DTG 261353Z0), 262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6) AND
270300Z2 (DTG 270153Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000126 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 55.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 55.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.2S8 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 15.5S1 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 16.3S0 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 17.2S0 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.2S2 53.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 55.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST OF ANTATAHA, MADAGASCAR AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE INITIAL 24 HOURS UNDER THE WEAK STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER 24 HOURS,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261353Z0), 262100Z1 (DTG
261953Z6), 270300Z2 (DTG 270153Z8) AND 270900Z8 (DTG 270753Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000126 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 14.5S0 55.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 55.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 14.7S2 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.0S6 55.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 16.0S7 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 17.2S0 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 19.6S6 52.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 55.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST OF ANTATAHA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 261130Z3
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 260703Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTS A 27 NM DIAMETER EYE. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR POINT
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6), 270300Z2 (DTG 270153Z8), 270900Z8 (DTG
270753Z4) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271353Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
07P (JO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000126 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 14.1S6 55.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 55.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.2S7 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.8S3 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 15.6S2 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.6S3 55.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 19.1S1 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 55.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 261730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND INCREASED
ORGANIZATION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 08S (CONNIE) REMAINS WITHIN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY DURING THE INITIAL 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z2 (DTG 270153Z8), 270900Z8 (DTG 270753Z4), 271500Z5 (DTG
271353Z1) AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P
(JO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000127 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 14.5S0 55.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 55.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.0S6 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.6S2 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.5S2 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 17.5S3 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 55.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 262330Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZATION AND OUTFLOW HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY DURING THE INITIAL 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
PERIOD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270753Z4), 271500Z5 (DTG 271353Z1),
272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 07P (JO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000127 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 15.0S6 56.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 56.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 15.9S5 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 16.9S6 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 17.8S6 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.3S3 55.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 22.3S7 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 56.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 270530Z7 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. A 270141Z5
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED ABOUT A 20 NM
IRREGULAR EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALED AN EYEWALL SURROUNDING
APPROXIMATELY FOUR FIFTHS OF THE VORTEX. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND ENTERING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S
(CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
PERIOD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271353Z1), 272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7),
280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5). REFER TO FINAL
WARNING ON TROPICAL STORM JO (07P) (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000127 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 15.5S1 56.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 56.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 16.5S2 56.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 17.7S5 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.0S0 56.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.3S5 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 23.2S7 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 56.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
271130Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
APPROXIMATELY AN 11 NM EYE. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND BUILD IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH
SYNOPTIC INDICATIONS OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SYSTEM. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 08S. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE ENTERING THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7), 280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9), 280900Z9
(DTG 280753Z5) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281353Z2). REFER TO THE FINAL
WARNING ON TROPICAL CYCLONE 7P (JO) (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000127 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 16.3S0 56.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 56.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 17.6S4 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.0S0 56.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.3S5 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 21.6S9 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 24.6S2 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 56.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
271700Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 08S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW HAS AN APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
WELL-DEFINED EYE. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA (WMO 61986) REPORTED 31 KNOT
(10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS ABOUT 140 NM DUE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS VERY GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH MINIMAL SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 130 KNOTS BY THE
24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9),
280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5), 281500Z6 (DTG 281353Z2) AND 282100Z3 (DTG
281953Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000128 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 16.6S3 57.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 57.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 17.8S6 56.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.1S1 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.3S5 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 21.6S9 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 24.7S3 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 56.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
272300Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102-115 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 08S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW HAS APPROXIMATELY A 15 NM EYE,
WHICH HAS BECOME PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED SUGGESTING TC 08S IS
APPROACHING PEAK INTENSITY. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA (WMO 61986)
REPORTED 30 KNOT (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH MINIMAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF
INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5), 281500Z6 (DTG 281353Z2),
282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8) AND 290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000128 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 17.1S9 57.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 57.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 18.1S0 56.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 19.9S9 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 21.4S7 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 23.0S5 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 26.9S7 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 56.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 115 KNOTS. TC 08S
HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL
DEFINED 11 NM EYE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW
OVER ALL QUADRANTS. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH PREVIOUSLY HAD
INHIBITED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF INCREASING
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z3 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8),
290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), AND 291500Z7 (DTG
291353Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000128 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 17.5S3 56.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 56.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 18.5S4 56.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 19.8S8 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 22.0S4 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 23.5S0 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 26.6S4 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 56.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281730Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 08S
(CONNIE) HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A 10 NM EYE, HOWEVER,
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ELONGATION OF THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 08S
(CONNIE) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES INTO A REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000129 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 18.0S9 56.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 56.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 19.0S0 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 21.2S5 53.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 23.5S0 52.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 28.6S6 53.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 56.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 08S (CONNIE)
HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A RAGGED
10 NM EYE, BUT WITH CONTINUED SHEARING TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TUTT IS ENHANCING THE
UPPERLEVEL WIND FLOW, AND CAUSING AN INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 08S
(CONNIE) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND SUPPORT ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 72 HOUR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000129 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 18.8S7 55.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 55.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.5S7 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 22.3S7 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 24.4S0 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 26.6S4 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 30.9S2 52.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 55.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS
AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 290530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. TC 08S (CONNIE) HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS A CLOUD FILLED 10 NM EYE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TUTT IS ENHANCING THE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW, AND CAUSING AN INCREASE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD TURNING SOUTHWARD AFTER
THIS POINT INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO FURTHER INCREASE
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND SUPPORT
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 72 HOUR TIME FRAME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z7 IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9),
300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2) AND 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000129 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 19.8S8 54.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 54.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 21.6S9 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 23.2S7 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 25.0S7 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 26.6S4 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 29.4S5 52.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 54.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
WEST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
WITH THE EYE BEGINNING TO FILL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THIS TUTT IS ENHANCING THE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND FLOW, AND CAUSING AN INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD TURNING SOUTHWARD AFTER
THIS POINT INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO
FURTHER INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND
SUPPORT ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 72 HOUR TIME FRAME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2),
300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000129 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 20.9S1 53.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 53.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 22.7S1 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 24.0S6 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 25.8S5 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 27.9S8 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 31.7S1 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 53.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST OF REUNION ISLAND, AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291730Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ELONGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TUTT IS ENHANCING THE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW, AND CAUSING AN INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. DRIER AIR FROM THE TUTT IS BEING
INJECTED INTO THE INFLOW OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT IN
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENHANCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 08S
(CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD TURNING SOUTHWARD AFTER THIS POINT INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO FURTHER INCREASE THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND SUPPORT ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY THE 72 HOUR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z0 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND
302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000130 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 22.0S4 53.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 53.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 23.5S0 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 25.0S7 51.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 26.9S7 51.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 29.2S3 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 33.1S7 54.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 52.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
292330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE IS NO LONGER
EVIDENT AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ELONGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS TUTT
IS ENHANCING THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW, AND CAUSING AN INCREASE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. DRIER AIR FROM THE
TUTT IS BEING INJECTED INTO THE INFLOW OF THE SYSTEM. THE DRY, COLD
AIR WILL ALSO ENHANCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD,
THEN TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN A MORE EASTWARD
DIRECTION AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO
FURTHER INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND ALSO
SUPPORT ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 72 HOUR TIME FRAME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8), 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5),
302100Z6 (301953Z1), AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000130 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 23.2S7 51.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S7 51.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 25.2S9 50.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 26.9S7 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 28.6S6 50.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 30.3S6 51.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 51.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
300530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 300443Z4
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS INDICATES A SPIRAL BAND
OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND ALSO SUPPORT
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300600Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1) AND
310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000130 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 25.2S9 50.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S9 50.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 26.9S7 49.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 29.3S4 49.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 31.3S7 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 33.2S8 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.6S3 50.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAS MOVED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 301331Z1 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS
ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 08S
(CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO FURTHER INCREASE THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND ALSO SUPPORT ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9) AND 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000131 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- NEAR 27.5S4 50.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S4 50.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 29.9S0 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 31.8S2 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 33.1S7 53.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 34.1S8 54.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 28.1S1 50.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
310530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 08S (CONNIE)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, AND ALSO SUPPORT
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2) AND
010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000131 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 29.7S8 51.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S8 51.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 31.2S6 52.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 32.7S2 54.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 34.3S0 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 35.5S3 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 30.1S4 51.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAS MOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS. A 311504Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
DEPICTED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF TC 08S. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
08S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6) AND 012100Z4 (DTG 011953Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000201 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 31.3S7 52.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3S7 52.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 33.1S7 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 34.8S5 56.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 37.6S6 60.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 39.5S7 67.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 31.7S1 52.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAS MOVED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF THE
LLCC. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID WARMING OF
CLOUD TOPS AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES OVER TC 08S. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
08S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z4 (DTG 011953Z9) AND 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000201 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 024
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 32.1S6 53.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1S6 53.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 33.8S4 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 36.0S9 57.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 32.5S0 53.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAS MOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
011451Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICT A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENING
CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TC
08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT APPEARS
TC 08S WILL NOT UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED. TC 08S WILL REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE JETSTREAM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10S (DAMIENNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000202 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 33.4S0 54.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4S0 54.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 34.7S4 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 36.1S0 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 33.7S3 54.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CONNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAS MOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 020211Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAKENING CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. TC 08S (CONNIE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 08S WILL REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE JETSTREAM
AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAMIENNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_connie_jtwc_advisories.htm
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