WTXS23 PGTW 20000101 01:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6S8 75.0E2 TO 17.4S2 80.9E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010100Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S1 76.9E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN TOWARD THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 020130Z6.//
=========================================================================
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000202 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAMIENNE) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 16.2S9 76.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 76.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 17.0S8 75.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 17.9S7 74.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 19.4S4 72.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 21.3S6 69.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 76.6E9.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
10S (DAMIENNE) IS FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. BASED
ON THIS AND A 020025Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS,
WE RELOCATED THE POSITION ABOUT 60 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
WARNING POSITION. TC 10S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE 020025Z9 SSM/I
PASS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE ELONGATED IN
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED
SOUTHEAST OF TC 10S (DAMIENNE) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND TO PROVIDE A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 10S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THEN TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG
021951Z8) AND 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(CONNIE) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000202 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAMIENNE) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 17.3S1 76.1E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 76.1E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 18.3S2 74.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 75.7E9.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 10 FEET.
TC 10S (DAMIENNE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 
HOURS, IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
021730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 021301Z7 SSMI PASS 
ALSO SHOWS MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, AND 
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RECENT REINTENSIFICATION 
OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 020515Z3, PARTIAL ERS-2 
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES 10 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. 
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE SATELLITE IMAGER 
AS WELL AS IN THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT. THE LOW TO 
MID-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF TC 10S (DAMIENNE) IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING. TC 10S (DAMIENNE) 
IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNING 
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL UPDATE.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_damienne_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]