Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JO : JTWC Advisories |
Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone JO Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20000123 08:30z RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S8 172.9E9 TO 20.6S8 172.9E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230800Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 171.9E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 240830Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20000124 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z6 --- NEAR 17.5S3 173.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 173.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 18.9S8 173.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 20.8S0 173.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 22.7S1 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 24.7S3 172.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 173.2E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 232330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 231750Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHERN SPIRAL BAND EXTENDS FROM ABOUT FOURTEEN DEGREES LATITUDE, POLEWARD INTO THE LLCC. SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BOTH THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND THE UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER THE 36 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST POINT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTENSITY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 07P ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 230821Z JAN 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 230830) NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241351Z6) AND 250300Z0 (DTG 250151Z4).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20000124 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z9 --- NEAR 19.5S5 173.5E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 173.5E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 21.0S3 174.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 22.9S3 175.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 24.5S1 175.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 26.1S9 176.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 173.7E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER- LEVEL HIGH SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EQUATORWARD FROM THE SAMOA ISLANDS AND A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ZEALAND TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTENSITY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITH POSSIBLE HINDERING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR EFFECTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250151Z4) AND 251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20000125 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z7 --- NEAR 20.3S5 174.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 174.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 175.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 23.3S8 176.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 24.8S4 177.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 26.2S0 178.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 174.9E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF FIJI AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH A SPIRAL BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 242116Z6 SSMI PASS SHOWS THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED ABOVE THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER TC 07P (JO) AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER AN LLCC NEAR 22.4S8 173.2E3. TC 07P (JO) IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS BEING WEAKENED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ALSO INFLUENCING THE TRACK IS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7) AND 260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20000125 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z0 --- NEAR 21.8S1 175.2E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 175.2E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 23.6S1 176.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 25.4S1 177.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 27.4S3 179.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 29.1S2 176.9W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 22.3S7 175.5E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK INCREASINGLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 07P (JO) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5) AND 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20000126 03:00z COR SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z8 --- NEAR 23.0S5 176.9E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 176.9E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 25.1S8 178.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 27.5S4 178.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 29.5S6 174.8W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 30.8S1 170.9W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.5S0 177.4E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. THE WARNING IS BASED ON 252330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES TC 07P (JO) REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND IS MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE RAINBAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD, GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECT SENTENCE, UNDER INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TO, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20000126 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z1 --- NEAR 25.4S1 179.1E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S1 179.1E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 27.9S8 178.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 29.9S0 175.1W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 31.1S5 170.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 31.6S0 166.0W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 26.0S8 179.7E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 07P (JO) REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A 10 NM BANDING EYEWALL EVIDENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 260936Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS DEPICTS A BANDING FEATURE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 07P (JO) WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20000127 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- NEAR 27.6S5 178.4W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S5 178.4W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 29.6S7 175.0W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 31.0S4 170.1W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 28.1S1 177.6W1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 07P (JO) HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, NEAR 23C, BENEATH THE SYSTEM WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING COOL AIR STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 12 HOUR PERIOD, BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_jo_jtwc_advisories.htm
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