WTPS21 PGTW 20000123 08:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S8 172.9E9 TO 20.6S8
172.9E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 230800Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 171.9E8.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 240830Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000124 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z6 --- NEAR 17.5S3 173.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 173.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 18.9S8 173.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 20.8S0 173.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 22.7S1 172.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 24.7S3 172.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 173.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 232330Z3
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER THE LLCC HAS
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO
CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 231750Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHERN SPIRAL BAND EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
FOURTEEN DEGREES LATITUDE, POLEWARD INTO THE LLCC. SYNOPTIC DATA
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BOTH THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND THE UW-CIMSS CHARTS
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 07P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, TC 07P
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER THE 36
TO 48 HOUR FORECAST POINT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC
07P IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTENSITY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
LEVEL OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 07P ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 12 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 230821Z JAN 00
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 230830)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241351Z6) AND 250300Z0 (DTG
250151Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000124 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z9 --- NEAR 19.5S5 173.5E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 173.5E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 21.0S3 174.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 22.9S3 175.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 24.5S1 175.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 26.1S9 176.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 173.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS
PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION. TC 07P (JO)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EQUATORWARD FROM THE
SAMOA ISLANDS AND A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW
ZEALAND TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTENSITY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITH POSSIBLE HINDERING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR EFFECTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z0 (DTG 250151Z4) AND 251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000125 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z7 --- NEAR 20.3S5 174.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 174.6E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 175.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 23.3S8 176.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 24.8S4 177.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 26.2S0 178.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8  174.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF FIJI AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH A
SPIRAL BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 242116Z6 SSMI PASS SHOWS THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLCC HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED
ABOVE THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER
TC 07P (JO) AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER AN LLCC NEAR 22.4S8
173.2E3. TC 07P (JO) IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS BEING WEAKENED BY A PASSING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ALSO INFLUENCING THE TRACK IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
 LLCC TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7) AND 260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000125 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- NEAR 21.8S1 175.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 175.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 23.6S1 176.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 25.4S1 177.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 27.4S3 179.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 29.1S2 176.9W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 22.3S7 175.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 07P (JO)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN TRACK INCREASINGLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 07P (JO) IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5) AND 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000126 03:00z COR
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z8 --- NEAR 23.0S5 176.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 176.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 25.1S8 178.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 27.5S4 178.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 29.5S6 174.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 30.8S1 170.9W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.5S0 177.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO) HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. THE WARNING IS BASED ON 252330Z5
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 07P (JO) REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND IS MOVING
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE RAINBAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM
THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD, GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG
261351Z8) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECT SENTENCE, UNDER INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TO, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000126 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 25.4S1 179.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S1 179.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 27.9S8 178.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 29.9S0 175.1W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 31.1S5 170.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 31.6S0 166.0W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 26.0S8 179.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 07P (JO) REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH
A 10 NM BANDING EYEWALL EVIDENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 260936Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS DEPICTS A BANDING FEATURE SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P (JO) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 07P (JO)
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000127 03:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (JO) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 27.6S5 178.4W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S5 178.4W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 29.6S7 175.0W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 31.0S4 170.1W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 28.1S1  177.6W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (JO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE 
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 07P (JO) HAS BEGUN TO 
SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. 
SEA SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, NEAR 
23C, BENEATH THE SYSTEM WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING COOL AIR 
STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH. TC 07P IS 
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 12 HOUR PERIOD, 
BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST 
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. THIS 
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING 
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR 
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_jo_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]