Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NORMAN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone NORMAN Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20000229 16:00z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/291251Z FEB 00//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S7 119.6E7 TO 19.7S7 114.0E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291430Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.4S3 119.0E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12
HOURS INDICATE THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS WEAK.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 011600Z8.
5. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA DSN 243-8872.
FORECAST TEAM STEWART/MCKEOWN/WYNN/ILCZUK//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 20000301 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 18.6S5 116.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 116.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.8S7 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.1S1 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.4S4 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.6S6 109.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 115.9E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ORGANIZING. COASTAL RADAR
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WAS INHIBITED BY SHEER ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 16S DEVELOPED QUICKLY
ONCE THE SHEER WEAKENED. INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. A SHIP REPORT
NEAR 19.4S4 117.3E2 AT 010600Z7 HAD EASTERLY WINDS AT 42 KNOTS AND A
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 995.0 MB. MOVEMENT IS BASED ON RADAR DATA AND
EXTRAPOLATION. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
INDIAN OCEAN. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
CURRENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SIGNATURE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 291553Z FEB 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 291600) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT
NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872).
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011953Z9) AND 020900Z1 (DTG
020753Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
FORECAST TEAM: SWATZELL/DWINELLS/WORKMAN//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000301 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 18.8S7 114.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 114.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.1S1 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.4S4 109.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.6S6 107.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 19.8S8 103.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 113.7E2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 17 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) HAS BEEN
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 16S IS
LIKELY UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. CLOUD TOPS NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER WERE -85C AND COLDER AND A WELL DEFINED CDO
PATTERN HAS FORMED. 011334Z2 SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT A PARTIAL
EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FOR THIS WARNING. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE EAST
AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT ELSEWHERE AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN OUR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST THRU 24 HOURS WITH AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION AFTER THAT.
HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TC 16S COULD REACH 100 KNOTS IN 48
HOURS. TC 16S (NORMAN) HAS ENCOUNTERED THE STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING TC 16S ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ALSO
WITH OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS ESPECIALLY THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020755Z9) AND 022100Z5 (DTG
021955Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS
SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA
(DSN 243-8872). NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER PEARL HARBOR HI.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000302 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 18.9S8 112.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 112.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.2S2 109.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.3S3 106.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 19.3S3 103.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.4S4 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 111.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 16S (NORMAN) HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 020112Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSMI) PASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A RAGGED EYEWALL. TC 16S
(NORMAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021955Z2) AND
030900Z2 (DTG 030755Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
IS A PRODUCT OF THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER, PEARL HARBOR,
HAWAII. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT
NPMOC PEARL HARBOR (DSN 474-2320).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000302 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 19.6S6 109.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 109.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.9S9 106.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 19.9S9 103.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.6S6 99.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.3S3 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 108.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN) IS LOCATED 280 NM NORTHWEST OF
AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON
021730Z3 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 95 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 16S
(NORMAN) IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH VERY GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
NOW HAS A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF
APPROXIMATELY 130 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG 030755Z0) AND 032100Z6
(DTG 031955Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS
(WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000303 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 19.7S7 106.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 106.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.0S2 103.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 20.3S5 99.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 20.6S8 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 21.2S5 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 105.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
030530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 130 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 16S (NORMAN) HAS INTENSIFIED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW HAS A 25 NM EYE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(NORMAN) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE 36
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE
TO SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG
031955Z3) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040755Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000303 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 20.2S4 102.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 102.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 20.6S8 98.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 21.1S4 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 21.6S9 92.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 22.5S9 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 101.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 115 KNOTS. A 031447Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I)
PASS DEPICTED A WELL DEVELOPED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ABOUT A 20 NM
CLOUD-FREE EYE. THE PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040755Z1) AND 042100Z7 (DTG
041955Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000304 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 007
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 20.6S8 98.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 98.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 21.1S4 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 21.9S2 92.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 23.1S6 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 24.8S4 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 98.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A 20 NM SYMMETRIC EYE. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THAT TC 16S (NORMAN) HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH THE
STRONGEST DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING WEST TO NORTH OF THE CENTER. A
040201Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS ALSO DEPICTS THE
SYSTEMS OVERALL SYMMETRIC SHAPE WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
16S IS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, UW-CIMSS DATA SHOWS THAT TC 16S
IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY THE 48 HOUR POINT. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNDER AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THEN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE
TO SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG
041955Z4) AND 050900Z4 (DTG 050755Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000304 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 008
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 20.5S7 96.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 96.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.8S0 94.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 21.5S8 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 22.3S7 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 23.3S8 88.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 96.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 16S HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
BECOME DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS GENERATING MODERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLIES OVER TC 16S (NORMAN). TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARD, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050755Z2) AND 052100Z8 (DTG
051955Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000305 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 20.5S7 94.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 94.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.6S8 92.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.9S1 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.3S6 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.8S1 88.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 94.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT TC 16S HAS WEAKENED OVERALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS, BUT HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, PRODUCING MODERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLIES OVER TC 16S (NORMAN). TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARD, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER THE 36-HOUR POINT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z1 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051955Z5) AND
060900Z5 (DTG 060755Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE)
WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNING (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR ITS FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000305 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 20.5S7 93.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 93.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.6S8 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.1S4 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.5S8 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 21.6S9 88.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 92.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. A 051663Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM)
PASS DEPICTED A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH TWO BANDING
FEATURES POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. 500 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 16S IS TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) SHOULD
STAIR STEP SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD WITHIN
THE RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG
060755Z3) AND 062100Z9 (DTG 061955Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000306 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 20.7S9 92.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 92.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.0S3 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.4S7 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 21.6S9 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.6S9 87.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 92.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A 060315Z5 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A 70 NM DIAMETER RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CENTERED
WITHIN THE RING. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BANDING EYE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE 500 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 16S IS SLOWLY TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) SHOULD IS
FORECAST TO STAIR STEP SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE
RIDGE WEAKNESS, THEN TO INCREASE SPEED AND TRACK MORE WESTWARD AFTER
THE 36 HOUR POINT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061955Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070755Z4). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000306 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 21.9S2 91.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 91.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.1S6 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 24.2S8 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 25.3S0 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.7S5 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 91.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPIRAL BAND OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 16S (NORMAN) IS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6 (DTG 070755Z4) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071955Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18P (LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000307 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 23.1S6 91.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 91.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 24.4S0 91.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 25.3S0 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.2S0 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 27.3S2 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 91.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS AND THE
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPIRAL BAND OF CONVECTION ELONGATING TO
THE SOUTHEAST, AS A RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM
A PASSING MID LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. TC 16S (NORMAN) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
SERVE TO DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) COMPLETELY
FROM THE CONVECTION. THE LLCC WILL THEN RESUME A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REESTABLISHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 (DTG 071955Z7) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080755Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM LEO (18P) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000307 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 24.5S1 93.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 93.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 25.8S5 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.6S4 92.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 26.9S7 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 27.0S9 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.8S4 93.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071730Z8 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF CIRRUS ELONGATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AS A RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM A
PASSING MID LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. A 071532Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN AREA
OF WEAK CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 16S (NORMAN) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER 12
HOURS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SERVE TO DECOUPLE THE
CONVECTION COMPLETELY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC WILL THEN RESUME A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REESTABLISHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG
080755Z5) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081955Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000308 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 015 RELOCATED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 23.9S4 92.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 92.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 23.6S1 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 23.4S9 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 23.2S7 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.0S5 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 92.4E5.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(NORMAN) IS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. BASED
ON THIS VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED 45 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN) HAS REMAINED VIRTUALLY QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE NORTH. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 0080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TC 16S (NORMAN) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CONVECTION
BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS PROVIDED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO THE STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081955Z8) AND
090900Z8 (DTG 090755Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE)
WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18P (LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000308 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNING NR 016
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 23.5S0 92.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 92.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 23.0S5 91.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 92.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NORMAN) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 081518Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED
ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FINGER OF THE POLAR FRONT JET APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 16S. LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER 33S6
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 16S (NORMAN), POSITIONED EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE, IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 18 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_norman_jtwc_advisories.htm
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