WTPS22 PGTW 20010216 14:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 161422Z FEB 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160021Z FEB 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 160030)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS.
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA.
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7S5 159.0E5 TO 19.8S8
165.8E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 161130Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.3S2 159.8E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S1 157.7E0 HAS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORAL SEA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE ABOUT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.  UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. AN
EARLIER SHIP REPORT INDICATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR
997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171430Z6.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 137.7E8//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010217 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z8 --- NEAR 19.1S1 162.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 162.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 19.9S9 165.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 20.8S0 167.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 22.1S5 170.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 23.9S4 172.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 163.3E3.
TC 10P HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SHEAR LINE, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 10P HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT 10 NM SOUTHEAST
OF THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SHEAR LINE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 10P SHOULD INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 09 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 161422Z
FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 161430)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171351Z8) AND 180300Z2 (DTG
180151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 200117 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z1 --- NEAR 19.7S7 165.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 165.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 21.2S5 167.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 22.7S1 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 166.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA,
NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171330Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED,
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
ABOUT 20 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE VORTEX CENTER. 170600Z4
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POLAR FRONT JET FINGER WITH
ASSOCIATED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. TC
10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN THE LOW/MID LEVEL POLEWARD ORIENTED
STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010218 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z9 --- NEAR 21.0S3 167.0E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 167.0E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 22.5S9 167.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 167.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 172330Z6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED, RAPIDLY WEAKENING
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 65 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
180000Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 25-
45 KNOTS OVER THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH A POLAR FRONT JET FINGER. TC
10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN THE LOW/MID LEVEL POLEWARD ORIENTED
STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 09 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200110_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]