WTPS21 PGTW 20010225 13:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251251Z FEB 01//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S1 140.8E3 TO 15.8S4
136.0E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 251230Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S1 140.2E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WHICH ORIGINATED IN THE CORAL SEA HAS TRACK ACROSS THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA AND HAS NOW EMERGED IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW
ALOFT. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLIES. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010225 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251251Z FEB 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ABIGAIL) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- NEAR 16.1S8 139.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 139.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 15.9S5 139.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 15.8S4 138.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 15.7S3 137.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 15.7S3 136.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 139.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ABIGAIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TC 12P HAS SLOWED AND INTENSIFIED IN PAST 6 HOURS.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAKENING. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD INITIALLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE
RAPIDLY IN THE LATE PERIOD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
BUILDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS AND THEN MORE SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 251251Z6 FEB 01
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 251300) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010226 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ABIGAIL) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z4 --- NEAR 16.5S2 139.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 139.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 17.2S0 138.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 17.6S4 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 17.9S7 136.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 18.2S1 134.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 139.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ABIGAIL), LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TC 12P HAS PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK ANTICYCLONE IS
FORMING ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND EASTERLY WINDS
ALOFT ARE WEAKENING. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTHWEST
OF BAYLEY POINT, AUSTRALIA AT AROUND 261400Z3. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010226 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ABIGAIL) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 137.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE  
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 137.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 17.2S0 136.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 17.3S1 134.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 17.3S1 132.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9  137.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ABIGAIL), LOCATED ABOUT 25 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WOLLOGORANG, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 12P MADE 
LANDFALL AT 261400Z3 APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BAYLEY 
POINT, AUSTRALIA. AT 261700Z6, WOLLOGORANG REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS 
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
261730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 
KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING 
FEATURE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA DURING PAST 
3 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION STILL REMAINS 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. TC 12P 
(ABIGAIL) SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL 
EASTERLIES GENERATED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL 
AUSTRALIA. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF 
THE PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010227 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ABIGAIL) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 17.1S9 136.2E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 136.2E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 17.2S0 134.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 17.3S1 133.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 135.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ABIGAIL), LOCATED ABOUT 420 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS,
AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT RAPIDLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER, IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES.
SYNOPTIC REPORTS ABOUT 60 NM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM (WMO NO. 94248)
INDICATE 27-KNOT SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. TC 12P
(ABIGAIL) SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
EASTERLIES GENERATED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
(PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_abigail_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]