Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ANDO : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2000-2001 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ANDO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20010102 09:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S0 62.3E1 TO 12.8S1 58.4E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020716Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 61.8E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 62.7E5 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 61.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 020449Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE AREA IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030930Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010102 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 11.3S5 60.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 60.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 11.8S0 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 12.9S2 58.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 14.3S8 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.7S3 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 60.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST OF
THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 04S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 021726Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING IN
TOWARDS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, IS VIRTUALLY DEEP CONVECTION FREE. MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR ALONG 25S7
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID PERIOD WITH AN APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 020921Z4 JAN 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020930) NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG 030752Z7)
AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031952Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010103 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 59.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 59.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 12.2S5 59.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 12.9S2 58.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 14.3S8 57.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 59.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST OF
THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED
BANDING CURVATURE. A 030620Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION PASS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING EYE WITH A PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING
IN TOWARDS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, IS VIRTUALLY DEEP CONVECTION FREE. MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR ALONG 25S7
SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID PERIOD WITH AN APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG
031952Z0) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040752Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010103 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 12.4S7 58.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 58.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 13.2S6 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 14.2S7 57.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.9S5 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.8S6 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 58.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP
OF MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND
INCREASED BANDING CURVATURE. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. TC 04S HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE WEAKNESS AND BEGIN
RECURVATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040752Z8) AND 042100Z7 (DTG
041952Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010104 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 13.7S1 57.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 57.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.2S2 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.5S8 54.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 57.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP
OF MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040516Z6 VISIBLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED BANDING CURVATURE. CONVECTION HAS
INTENSIFIED IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 04S HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE WEAKNESS
AND BEGIN RECURVATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041952Z1) AND 050900Z4 (DTG
050752Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010104 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 14.8S3 56.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 56.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.2S9 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.7S5 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.9S1 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 56.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND A 10
NM EYE. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 04S
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED
BY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE WEAKNESS AND BEGIN RECURVATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050752Z9) AND 052100Z8 (DTG
051952Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010105 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 16.5S2 55.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 55.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.0S9 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.5S5 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.9S1 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.4S8 53.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 55.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050516Z7
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND A 10 NM EYE. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY IN
ALL QUADRANTS. TC 04S CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED BY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE WEAKNESS AND BEGIN
RECURVATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG
051952Z2) AND 060900Z5 (DTG 060752Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010105 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 54.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 54.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 54.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.4S6 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.4S7 53.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.7S1 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 54.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051716Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. THE SSM/I IMAGE DEPICTS A
PRIMARY BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND A 20 NM CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WELL-ORGANIZED, SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. TC 04S SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH, SITUATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 04S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060752Z0) AND
062100Z9 (DTG 061952Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010106 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 19.4S4 53.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 53.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.7S9 53.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.9S2 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.8S2 51.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 23.8S3 50.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 53.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 060553Z9 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25-NM ROUND EYE.
A 060534Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS INTENSE,
SOLID CORE CONVECTION WITH PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A 060553Z9 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 35-KNOT WIND
RADIUS EXTENDING TO ABOUT 150 NM. TC 04S SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH, SITUATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 04S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061952Z3) AND
070900Z6 (DTG 070752Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010106 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 20.9S1 53.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 53.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.2S6 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.6S1 51.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 25.0S7 50.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.4S2 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 52.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST OF REUNION ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. AT 061800Z5, ST DENIS, REUNION, REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A
061808Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A
CONVECTIVE RING WRAPPING THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE EYE.
THE PASS ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER REUNION ISLAND. TC
04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG
070752Z1) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071952Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010107 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 22.3S7 52.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 52.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.4S9 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 24.5S1 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.2S0 49.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 27.8S7 48.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.6S0 52.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF MANAKARA, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A 25-NM ROUND EYE. A 070522Z6 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
TC 04S (ANDO) SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A SLOW MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 (DTG 071952Z4) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080752Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010107 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 23.7S2 51.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 51.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 25.1S8 50.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.4S2 49.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 28.2S2 48.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 30.2S5 48.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 51.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANAKARA, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A 9 NM
CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 071704Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
DEPICTED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. TC 04S (ANDO) SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A
WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 (DTG 080752Z2) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081952Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010108 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 24.6S2 51.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 51.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 25.8S5 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 27.8S7 49.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 30.0S3 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 32.2S7 49.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 24.9S5 51.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST
OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 080516Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SOUTHEAST. IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 04S
HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS A TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC.
TC 04S (ANDO) SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A SLOW MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR MID-PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z1 (DTG 081952Z5) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090752Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010108 21:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 25.1S8 50.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 50.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 26.6S4 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 28.3S3 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 30.0S3 48.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 32.0S5 48.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 50.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST
OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST. IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 04S HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH WEST OF
THE SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC. TC 04S (ANDO) SHOULD
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW MOVING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AFRICA,
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG
090752Z3) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091952Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CHANGED WWPW31 TO WWIO31 IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010109 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 27.0S9 50.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S9 50.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 28.3S3 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 29.7S8 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 31.9S3 50.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 34.1S8 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 27.3S2 50.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS ALSO INDICATES AN EXPOSED LLCC,
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 04S (ANDO)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG
091952Z6) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100752Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010109 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 28.0S0 50.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S0 50.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 28.9S9 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 30.6S9 51.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 32.6S1 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 28.2S2 50.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091716Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS ALSO INDICATES AN EXPOSED LLCC,
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 04S (ANDO)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100752Z5) AND 102100Z4 (DTG
101952Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010110 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 30.4S7 51.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4S7 51.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 32.3S8 52.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 34.2S9 53.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 30.9S2 52.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRONG WARM FRONT AND WEAKER COLD FRONT DEVELOPING ON THE
CIRCUALTION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 04S (ANDO) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND FINISH UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z7 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ando_jtwc_advisories.htm
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