Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone WALTER : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2000-2001 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20010402 20:00z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020552Z APR 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020600)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S8 106.3E0 TO 10.8S9 100.7E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021930Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 105.8E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH OF
CHRISTMAS ISLAND REMAINS ORGANIZED. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT
CIRCULATION CENTER. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT MUCH OF THE ORGANIZATION MAY BE IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE A
LESS ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, BUT BELOW AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS REMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010403 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 10.1S2 103.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 103.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 10.1S2 101.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 10.3S4 98.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 10.9S0 97.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 11.5S7 95.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 103.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (WALTER) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA REPORTS OF
GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS FROM CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UW-CMISS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN
A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EGRR, BETA
ADVECTION MODELS, CLIPER, AND HPAC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030000Z3 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 021952Z APR 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 022000). NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 AND 040300Z7. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW 022100) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010403 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 10.1S2 102.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 102.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 10.3S4 101.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 10.5S6 99.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 11.2S4 97.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 12.2S5 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 102.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE LLCC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC
17S SHOULD CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 AND 041500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010404 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 10.1S2 100.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 100.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 10.4S5 98.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 11.1S3 96.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 12.3S6 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 14.1S6 93.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.2S3 100.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
COCOS ISALND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 032049Z8 MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS AN 11
NM EYE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE LLCC. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD THEN TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17S WILL
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 AND 050300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010404 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 10.5S6 98.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 98.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 11.1S3 96.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.9S1 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.8S1 93.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.1S6 92.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.7S8 97.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COLD CLOUD TOPS PERSIST OVER TC 17S. A
040448Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A
PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 17S. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITHIN A NARROW UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD AS AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
TC 17S WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z8 AND 051500Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010405 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 11.0S2 96.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 96.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 12.0S3 95.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 13.4S8 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.9S4 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 92.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 96.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH OF
COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ENHANCED
INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE FREQUENT NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. AT 050000Z5, COCOS ISLAND
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 34 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
TRACKING INCREASINGLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 17S SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010405 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 12.3S6 96.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 96.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 13.3S7 94.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.3S8 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.1S7 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 15.8S4 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 95.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION
INDICATES SOME WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKENING
TREND. AT 051200Z8, COCOS ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 33 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
17S SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER VERTICAL SHEAR NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM COULD EXPERIENCE
INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IF IT TRACKS
BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 AND 061500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010406 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 13.0S4 95.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 95.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.0S5 95.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.1S7 94.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.4S1 94.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.8S6 94.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 95.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A
051814Z9 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM 37 GHZ) PASS
DEPICTED A 30 NM EYE WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT OVER NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 17S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD STRONG UPPER NORTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A FINGER OF THE POLAR FRONT JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND
070300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010406 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 13.8S2 94.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 94.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.0S6 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.2S9 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.2S0 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.3S2 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 93.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKEND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TC 17S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD STRONG
UPPER NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A FINGER OF THE POLAR FRONT
JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 071500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P
(SOSE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010407 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 15.1S7 95.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 95.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 94.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.5S4 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.0S2 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 20.7S9 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PULSATING, PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TC 17S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD STRONG
UPPER NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010407 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.9S7 95.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 95.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.7S7 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.7S9 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 21.5S8 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 22.3S7 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 95.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 17S IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S IS LOCATED
POLEWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE MID-PERIOD. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND
081500Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010408 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 19.3S3 95.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 95.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.3S5 94.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 20.7S9 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 21.1S4 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 95.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS SEPARATED FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S IS LOCATED
POLEWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010408 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 22.7S1 94.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 94.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 24.1S7 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 94.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES TC 17S HAS
LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IN MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_walter_jtwc_advisories.htm
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