WTPS21 PGTW 20010209 16:00z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082021Z FEB 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082030)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S4 138.6E8 TO 13.2S6
133.9E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 091430Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 137.5E6. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT
00 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 136.7E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 137.5E6 IN THE ARAFURA SEA, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS WITH A
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC
DEVELOPING IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101600Z8.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 114.4E0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010210 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.7S0 137.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 137.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 14.1S6 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 136.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 135.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 16.1S8 133.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 137.5E6.
TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD SYSTEM WITH 3 SEPARATE BANDS OF CONVECTION, AND MULTIPLE
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR 110700Z9 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
091551Z1 FEB 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
091600) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG
110751Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010210 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 14.3S8 136.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 136.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 14.7S2 135.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 15.2S8 134.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 15.7S3 133.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 15.9S5 132.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 136.2E2.
TC 08P HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION.
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD
BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. LANDFALL IS FORECAST FOR
110600Z8 NEAR LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG
111951Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010211 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WINSOME) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- NEAR 14.8S3 135.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 135.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 15.1S7 133.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 15.6S2 132.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 16.1S8 131.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 16.6S3 130.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 134.9E7.
TC 08P HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 07 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KTS. THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN TERRITORY, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG
111951Z8) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 112100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WINSOME) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 16.0S7 133.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 133.5E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 17.4S2 130.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 18.3S2 128.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0  132.8E4.
TC 08P HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE
ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL NEARLY 12 HOURS AGO. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_winsome_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]