WTPS21 PGTW 20000106 23:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 062251Z JAN 00//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S8 163.4E4 TO 19.1S1
167.4E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 062130Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 164.5E6. THE SYSTEM APPEARS QUASI-STATIONARY.
4. REMARKS:
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BENEATH CONVECTION THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. UW-CIMSS
CHARTS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS BENEATH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 072300Z2.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000107 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 165.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 165.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 16.4S1 166.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.5S2 167.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 16.6S3 169.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 16.6S3 170.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 165.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
WEST OF MALAKULA, VANUATU AND HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RELATIVELY SMALL, (ABOUT 100 NM IN AREAL
COVERAGE), SYMMETRIC, SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
A 071019Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I)
PASS REVEALED DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES MOVING
IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SSM/I
PASS ALSO SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE
LLCC. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
NEAR 15S6 AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER
THE ISLAND OF MALAKULA AROUND 081200Z1. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 16 FEET. RSMC NADI IS CURRENTLY
WARNING ON THE SYSTEM AS 05F WITH THE MANOP OF WTPS11
NFFN. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN
062251Z6 JAN 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 062300) NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3)
AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (BABIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000108 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 16.6S3 166.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 166.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.9S6 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 17.6S4 169.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 18.1S0 170.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 18.6S5 172.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 166.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (IRIS) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
WEST OF MALAKULA, VANUATU AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY
SMALL SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 12 NM ROUND EYE EMBEDDED APPROXIMATELY
30 NM. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 05P (IRIS) HAS GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05P
(IRIS) IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD NEAR 13S4 AND A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 05P
(IRIS) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z4 IS 18 FEET. RSMC NADI IS CURRENTLY WARNING ON THE SYSTEM AS
05F (IRIS) WITH THE MANOP OF WTPS11 NFFN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1
(DTG 081953Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000108 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 168.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 168.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 17.6S4 169.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 18.3S2 171.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 19.3S3 173.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 21.3S6 175.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 168.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (IRIS) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY  40 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MALAKULA, VANUATU AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CPA (CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH) TO
MALAKULA WAS 12 NM FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST. SYNOPTIC REPORTS AT THE
TIME WERE UNAVAILABLE. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 081730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF
MALAKULA, VANUATU. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE WHICH DEVELOPED
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE 6 HOURS EARLIER HAS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED. DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME ELONGATED STRETCHING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
LLCC IS POSITIONED BENEATH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EARLIER SITUATED OVER
THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE FIJI ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST CREATING A MORE POLEWARD STEERING PATTERN WITH APPROACH OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
IS EXPECTED AS TC 05P (IRIS) CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000109 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- NEAR 17.7S5 170.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 170.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 19.6S6 173.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 22.1S5 176.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 24.9S5 179.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 26.4S2 176.0W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 171.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (IRIS) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST OF SUVA, FIJI ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, TC 05P
(IRIS) STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH THE
PRIMARY SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE WEST QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM. A 082118Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOWS A
PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EARLIER SITUATED OVER THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH, HOWEVER
WEAK DIFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 05P (IRIS) IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
BUILDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FIJI ISLANDS, AND THE
SUBTROPICAL LOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05P (IRIS) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH. TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ITS SPEED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOW. TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN TO SLOWLY DECREASE INTENSITY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  04S (BABIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000109 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 18.6S5 174.3E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 174.3E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 21.3S6 178.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 24.1S7 177.9W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 26.6S4 172.8W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 175.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (IRIS) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
WEST OF SUVA, FIJI ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING OF TC 05P (IRIS) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SITUATED NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. A 091651Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATED VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM MORE THAN 6 HOURS AGO AS TC 05P
HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE JET FINGER CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR 20S2.
TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FIJI ISLANDS, AND A CUT-OFF LOW POSITIONED
NORTHWEST OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ITS
SPEED OF APPROACH THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000110 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 19.0S0 177.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 177.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 20.0S2 180.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 21.1S4 177.3W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 178.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (IRIS) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
100530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG VERTICAL
SHEARING OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 05P (IRIS) IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 05P (IRIS) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(BABIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000110 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 20.0S2 179.8W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 179.8W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 21.8S1 176.8W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 179.0W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (IRIS) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON EXTRAPOLATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED UPON AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA AND A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS
VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 05P (IRIS). THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 8 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR 12 HOURLY
UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_iris_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]